Nikola Vucevic faces the most questions of any player on the roster this year as the Orlando Magic reformed the frontcourt. Can he push through?
Nikola Vucevic is the most established player on the Orlando Magic.
He has been the Magic’s best and most consistent player for the last four years. He has averaged 16.2 points per game and 10.7 rebounds per game. The last two years, especially, he put himself in position to be an All Star, if only the Magic were good enough to matter.
And therein lies the rub. Vucevic is the most established player on the roster, but now the most uncertain player on the roster too.
The Magic seemingly went out and found players who complement his weaknesses and potentially replace him.
The Magic acquired Serge Ibaka, the rim-protecting power forward Vucevic always needed. He can play center, but has largely played power forward in his career. Still, the Magic seemed to have the potential for a smaller lineup that fits the new age of the NBA with Aaron Gordon at the 4 and Ibaka at the 5.
The pressure was seemingly on already.
Then came the Magic’s big free-agent signing. A fresh four-year, $68-million to Bismack Biyombo that makes him the highest paid player on the team.
Biyombo too fills the gap in Vucevic’s game — the rim protection he lacks — but unlike Ibaka, he is unquestionably a center. All of a sudden, Vucevic is facing roster pressure for the first time since joining the Magic.
The incumbent certainly has many advantages in this discussion. Vucevic is the Magic’s most consistent offensive option. And for a team without a lot of those, Vucevic’s varied offensive skills and versatility on that end are valuable.
Yet, this is a team that is going to cut its teeth on defense. And that is where Vucevic has yet to establish himself.
Vucevic has progressively gotten better, but the Magic’s defense getting capped at 17th in defensive rating last year with a supposedly defensive-minded coach in Scott Skiles does not breed a ton of confidence. Vucevic is not a rim protector. And he is not particularly fleet of foot defending the perimeter or in pick and rolls either.
This is a season that may make or break Vucevic and his career. He has done well putting up numbers for a Magic team without much prospects. Now the team is determined to win and Vucevic has to find his place on it.
What to Look For
Nikola Vucevic is reliable offensively. The Magic need him offensively too.
For the majority of his four years, Vucevic has scored. And scored effectively and efficiently.
His offensive abilities are pretty wide and varied too. He has a solid post-up game — 0.93 points per possession on 348 post-up possessions this past season. He has a solid mid-range game — especially for a center.
Vucevic is near the definition of a stretch-5 (minus the 3-point shot, which he said he is working on).
Vucevic is a good rebounder and a near sure double-double every night.
Whether the Magic want to establish a low-post presence with Vucevic or get him in a pick-and-pop, Vucevic could deliver offensively.
That does not mean Vucevic is a perfect offensive player. His scoring went down slightly last year to 18.2 per game and his rebounding was his lowest since joining the Magic at 8.9 per game since. That was likely a product of playing more with good rebounders in Aaron Gordon and Victor Oladipo.
More from Orlando Magic Daily
- 2023 Orlando Magic Playoff Lessons: Philadelphia 76ers can’t seem to avoid conflict
- 5 worst starters of the Orlando Magic’s Shaquille O’Neal era
- Orlando Magic FIBA World Cup: Franz Wagner can be a star if he takes it
- Orlando Magic are going to find out who they are in 2024
- 2024 Orlando Magic Player Outlook: Moe Wagner is the spark off of the bench
There may be another explanation. And it is certainly one that is a bit uncomfortable with his offense.
Vucevic seemed to have a tendency to move further away from the basket. He took 487 shots (7.5 per game) from 10 feet to the 3-point line last year (46.4 percent) compared to 497 shots (6.7 per game on 46.9 percent). That is quite an increase.
His shooting is an asset for sure. But it also is somewhat of a crutch. He can rely on his shooting and that leads him away to the basket.
Vucevic shoots only about two free throw attempts per game. And that continues to be a weakness of his. Staying away from the basket and relying on his mid-range jumper only heightens that weakness.
Regardless of all that, Vucevic is the Magic’s best offensive player. Certainly their most proven.
And the Magic will need Vucevic’s versatility to pair with Serge Ibaka on offense this season. They will need his shooting and consistency on the block to succeed.
What Could Go Wrong
Vucevic can have all the offensive skills in the world, but this is a team that needs defense. Defense at the highest level. And this is Vucevic’s greatest weakness.
Vucevic is not necessarily a negative defender. He posted a 1.1 defensive box plus-minus last year. That is about in line with his average. Vucevic does help the team defensively. At least, in a small way.
Where he really lacks is in protecting the rim, a skill that seems to be a must in the NBA these days for a successful defense. It certainly makes life easier for the best defenses in the league.
Vucevic last year gave up 54.0 percent at the rim. That is in line with his defending at the rim the last few years.
Vucevic is not a great shot blocker, not a great pick-and-roll defender and that becomes increasingly evident watching him play against the better point guards in the league. Teams are not afraid to venture into the paint when Vucevic is in the game.
The hope is adding a rim-protecting 4 like Serge Ibaka will make cover up these defensive mistakes. Frank Vogel has said he believes he can teach Vucevic better positioning and anticipation within the Magic’s defensive schemes.
Still, it feels like there is a ceiling for a team with Vucevic as the starting center. Especially as more teams try to stretch the floor.
That makes this season all the more important for him. The Magic need to find success and success on the defensive end for Vucevic’s offensive value to truly shine.
Offensive sacrifice
Everyone on the Orlando Magic the last few years has had to face this question at some point or another: Is this player just putting up good numbers on a bad team?
After all, someone had to score for those Magic teams even if they were just winning 20-plus games per year.
Tobias Harris faced that question as he entered free agency. Victor Oladipo faced that question as the Magic prepared to enter this offseason — and then eventually moved on from him.
That question now turns to Nikola Vucevic.
Vucevic was nearly an All Star in 2015. But for the same reason Arron Afflalo did not make the All-Star team in 2014, his team was simply not successful enough to get the All-Star nod. There really was not much of an argument to put Vucevic on that team — or this year’s team even with the team improving.
Vucevic can put up numbers. He is a double-double machine for the Magic. But at a certain point that production has to be directed toward his team winning.
Vucevic is a skilled passer — one of the best big-men passers in the league. The Magic can certainly use that skill and run some more offense through him. He had the highest usage rate on the team last year. But he still needs to be more effective.
It may not mean Vucevic’s scoring increases much. It may not mean Vucevic’s role changes very much. He just has to do what his team needs him to do.
Adding Serge Ibaka should make it easier for him to favor his jump shot. So long as he does some post work to free up Ibaka on the perimeter. He should find a good pair in Serge Ibaka offensively.
Defensively, though, Vucevic has to commit more attention and energy. He must do whatever he physically can do to make this team the best defensive team he can be.
That will be the biggest takeaway for him and his team to have some success.
Overall Outlook
This is going to be a telling season for Nikola Vucevic. It will plot the course for much of his career.
Essentially Vucevic will answer whether he can be a starting center on a Playoff team in the modern NBA.
No doubt, Vucevic is one of the best offensive centers in the league. And he should continue to flourish on that end. He is looking to expand his game and his shooting. And with another mid-range shooter in Serge Ibaka, he should find some more space to work in the post.
Vucevic should benefit on that end from having some more help.
Defensively though is where Vucevic will have to prove himself in a way he has not before.
Vucevic is probably not as bad on defense as people perceive. But the Magic need an elite defense to succeed this season. That means adding some more rim protection and limiting pick-and-roll penetration.
Here, Serge Ibaka will help tremendously. Ibaka was the model for what everyone though would be the ideal power forward pairing for him on that end. Now the Magic have to see how that turns out.
If not, Orlando has his replacement putting pressure on him from the bench. The Bismack Biyombo signing was certainly a shot across Vucevic’s bough. The Magic are ready to move forward with a defensive mentality and have a player they paid a lot of money to coming off the bench to fill that.
Vucevic is likely the better overall player — just look at Biyombo’s box plus-minus on Basketball-Reference. His offense is truly very good.
Next: Reviewing opportunity in the backcourt
But he may not be exactly what the Magic need. And so this is the year for Vucevic to prove he is more than just a good player putting up stats on a bad team.