Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Volume 13: No such thing as a free agent

The NBA season is over and there are some big questions that need answering for the Orlando Magic. We begin answering them as we dig into the mailbag.

The Orlando Magic have reached the end of the season. There will be no Playoffs. Tonight is the final game of the season. And for the fourth straight year, the Magic are going home in mid-April rather than late April or beyond.

While the Magic have made some progress in the win column, there are still a ton of questions about the roster. It is clear the team as currently constructed is not taking the steps forward to compete consistently for a Playoff spot. There are a lot of things left to learn.

And a lot of questions yet to answer.

I sent out a call for mailbag questions as the Orlando Magic headed to the West Coast last month.

There were a lot of questions then. There seem to be even more now as the Orlando Magic’s free agency strategy seems to be gaining some traction and clarity and the season comes to a close.

Every player will get a careful and close examination for sure. And the Magic will have a lot of options with how to move forward.

Until then, all we can do is wade into these questions and start thinking about them as I take your mailbag questions from the past few weeks.

Next: Free agent targets

From Andrew Chavez, via Facebook:

"I don’t know how, so I’ll leave my question on here and hope it gets answered. I actually have two. Who do you think the magic have a real chance at signing this summer? And who out of this team will be with this the magic long term?"

We will get into this in a little more detail soon and certainly after there is some clarity following the Draft. But this is a real question facing the Magic this offseason.

With the Magic trading Tobias Harris to the Detroit Pistons, they very clearly signaled they were ready to cash in some chips and move forward. They could not get anyone valuable in exchange for Harris and opted to pick up cap room instead. That is not likely going to sit unused.

The first part to the Magic’s summer — probably the most essential part — is picking which players to move forward with. This is the big decision. It affects the Magic’s free agency decisions and really the entire course of the franchise. We already have a ton of articles discussing this and a few podcasts where we really talk about.

The decision is so difficult, I feel like I am playing both sides when I talk to readers and followers on Twitter. I have not made a decision. And there are so many to make.

I have styled it as a Victor Oladipo or Evan Fournier decision. But it could easily be an Oladipo or Elfrid Payton decision. Or it could be a Nikola Vucevic decision. There are a lot of moving parts.

What is important to remember this summer is that really no player is safe.

So to answer that second question first. I think Aaron Gordon and Mario Hezonja are the safest players on the roster. They have the most untapped potential and the most value on the roster. After him, Elfrid Payton is probably pretty safe — there just are not any better replacements seemingly available in a weak point guard free agnet market.

Oladipo probably comes next. I imagine Fournier will get somewhere near $18 million per year as a free agent. And the only way Orlando trades Oladipo is if they get a star in return.

I think the Magic as currently constructed will find things difficult in free agency. They do not have any established stars to attract an established player to come here. They will have to take a risk on a young player if they go that route.

The Magic will likely target Al Horford and miss out on him. Then they will likely settle (and that might be too pejorative) for Harrison Barnes or Chandler Parsons. They are both fine players who can contribute and help this team, but may not push the needle. They come with risks.

More likely, the Magic will really push to make a trade at the Draft using Nikola Vucevic (probably the most likely player to be dealt on the roster among the core) to acquire a more established player. This is where that Jimmy Butler rumor comes into play.

If that happens, then they can step up a weight class in pursuing free agents.

Next: Sign and Trade

From Hurley Wittacker, via E-Mail:

"The Magic are probably going to push for big upgrades this summer what with all the cap space we have. Excluding LBJ and KD (cuz duh), I’m pining for Al Horford and Mike Conley (I’m not giving up on EP, he just needs to show me more). But Horford is tricky because he’s made it clear he wants the 5th Bird Rights year that only ATL can give him. So my question is: how quickly do we put Vucevic in a sign and trade to make that happen? Does it take more than 10 minutes? 15? Hugs and kisses, – Partin"

This seems like a good time to talk about the collective bargaining agreement and the rules about raises.

Under the collective bargaining agreement from before the 2011 lockout, the Magic could work a sign-and-trade deal with the Atlanta Hawks and acquire Al Horford, with Horford receiving Bird Rights raises and length. The new collective bargaining agreement has done away with this.

If Al Horford wants to get that fifth year, he cannot do so in a sign-and-trade. The collective bargaining agreement specifically does away with this. Raises are limited to 4.5 percent in a sign-and-trade rather than the 7.5 percent a player would get for signing with the team that holds their Bird Rights.

Essentially, the nature of sign-and-trades today is you trade away enough players to give yourself the cap room to sign the player. It is not supposed to be an even deal. There is no advantage to the player to agree to a sign-and-trade unless it is the only way for that player to get to the team he wants.

The new collective bargaining agreement took away a lot of the teeth this tool had before.

The Magic are going to have enough cap room to sign Al Horford outright to the largest contract they can — roughly $108.6 million over four years assuming a $90 million salary cap. So as things currently stand, there is no reason for the Magic to give anything up to acquire Horford this way.

The decision on whether to leave Atlanta and give up the extra year and increased raises is purely up to Horford.

Next: Most suitable free agents

From Danny Rodriguez, via e-mail:

"Hello I just have a couple of questions.. 1. Will Magic trade or waive more players this free agency season? Who? Why? 2. Which free agent would be more suitable for the magic roster? Parsons, Lowry, Horford,Noah? 1 or 2 players? Thank you.."

Obviously picked up this question in March when there was a still a chance for more roster moves. As expected, the Magic kind of stood pat for this season. No one really stood out in Erie this year that could help the team and the Magic rotation was pretty full (we can debate whether that is a good thing another day).

What I want to talk about here is what player is the best fit for the roster that the Magic could chase in free agency. That gets to team needs.

So what does this team need?

The place to start is a go-to scorer. The Magic need someone who can create offense and finish games. They need a leader that can carry the team and pick them up when they are starting to struggle. At times, Victor Oladipo seems to look like this guy, but he has been extremely inconsistent.

The next place is to find some length at small forward. As good as Evan Fournier has been paired with Victor Oladipo at small forward, it is pretty clear he does not quite have the size to run that position full time.

The team could also use some players with specific skills. They need a rim protector and more 3-point shooting. They can get some of these needs through internal development, but they will target free agency for some big help.

Al Horford can definitely fill a lot of these needs. He is a solid rim protector and defender and a good leader who can get the ball and calm an offense down.

Mike Conley fits that role too. But both those players are likely seeking more guaranteed winners.

The issue with the Magic’s plan is that it is relying on a free agent taking a risk on this team. More likely than not, the Magic will have to take a risk on a player who is up and coming and look for that veteran elsewhere.

It would not surprise me to see the team take a risk on Harrison Barnes or Chandler Parsons as their big free agent gets. Both provide something the Magic need — they can both shoot decently well and have some playoff experience. I lean more toward Barnes as he seems poised to take on a bigger role.

To be clear though, neither of these players fix all the Magic’s problems or move the needle in any significant way. I would want to see a second move to boost these signing or bring a guy in through a trade to support. Not to mention continued improvement from some of the Magic’s key guys that remain.

Next: Top defender?

This is probably the big question for the Orlando Magic, right? Who is the best one-on-one defender and how do they set up matchups.

Individual defense has largely not been the problem. The bigger issue has been the team’s help defense and how they rotate and trust each other. The team is not as sharp on its rotations since December.

Individually though, the two best defenders on the team are Victor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon. Both are very good on the ball and have good discipline and speed guarding their man.

Both still struggle some when they are off the ball.

Oladipo especially gets caught ball watching a bit too often or digging down too hard on the ball handler, ignoring his man. Usually it does not create too much of a problem. And the aggressiveness is a good thing.

Gordon is still learning good help-side positioning and how to rotate defensively. But he has grown by leaps and bounds as the season goes on.

I should mention Evan Fournier here too. He has been good defensively, but his big issue are his physical limitations. He just is not a small forward at the end of the day.

So who guards LeBron James?

I think we saw that in the April 1 game at Milwaukee. Aaron Gordon was the one guarding Giannis Antetokounmpo late in the game. It was clear that was who the Magic needed on him with his length.

If it is a guard, you stick Oladipo on him. It is a real luxury to have two quality, versatile perimeter defenders like those two on the floor to pick from for these moments.

Next: Options, options, options

This has probably been covered in various forms throughout the mailbag so far, but I will answer it more directly:

I think the first step this summer is to explore and possibly make a deal at the Draft involving the Draft pick and probably Nikola Vucevic (probably adding Ersan Ilyasova). Remember Ilyasova is not technically a free agent. His $8.4 million salary in 2017 becomes guaranteed on July 1, 2016. Until then, he can be traded like any other player.

Pairing Vucevic and Ilyasova would enable the Magic to take on $20 million in a trade (remember, Orlando is bumping up against the salary cap, so they have to match salaries unless they take back less money). This would be the best way to get a star or quasi-star on the roster before free agency.

I think that is critical if the Magic want to be significant players. The roster as currently constructed is probably not enough to attract a marquee free agent.

Without that trade, I think the Magic will have to take a risk on a guy who may not quite be a max player but could get there — like a Chandler Parsons or Harrison Barnes — or go after a player who used to be a max-level guy — like Dwight Howard or to some extent Al Horford.

The Magic are probably going to prioritize Horford as their free agent target. After him, they probably move to Parsons or Barnes or even Nicolas Batum. It is too early to tell exactly what they will look for.

Their next priority will be dealing with Evan Fournier’s free agency — I think it is likely they keep him unless they sign a small forward in free agency — and then they will look to fill out the roster. Joakim Noah could be an option if he wants to be a backup center and can be had at a decent price.

There are options. I think the Magic created a lot of flexibility.

It is important to remember too that the Magic can also take on more salary than they send out in a trade using the cap room they have created. So their big acquisition does not necessarily have to be in free agency.

They are going to have contingencies over contingencies. What the team has to guard somewhat against is spending money on the wrong guys just to spend the money. The wrong decisions here could be worse than no decision.

Next: So who do the Magic sign?

Most likely to sign with the Magic then?

I do not think they will get their main targets. Al Horford, Nicolas Batum and Hassan Whiteside are likely going to be looking for more established environments. I even think Harrison Barnes is going to be a pretty hot commodity coming off a deep Playoff run and might be out of the Magic’s range.

The bad part of this plan to go after free agents is that this team is not attractive enough yet — or, at least, obviously attractive enough — to get a free agent on the team outright. It is going to take some great negotiations and selling to take that step forward.

I am thinking a little bit smaller with this free agency. I think the Magic make some secondary moves like signing veterans in Luol Deng and Joakim Noah to bolster the bench and then re-sign Evan Fournier. That helps their bench and brings some good veterans into the locker room to support the young group. The Magic give them one more chance.

It is not a great summer, but I do not think it sets the team back. It sticks with the rebuild and gives the group another chance to develop. But there will certainly be fan blowback for not making a big splash.

Like I said, Orlando is probably going to push hard for a trade around the Draft. If they can get Jimmy Butler or someone like him, the calculus changes. They can get a big guy to come here — someone like Hassan Whiteside or Harrison Barnes or Dwight Howard — and that would really help.

I think the Magic will be more active searching for trades than in free agency. If they cannot swing a trade to cash in on assets, then that means they have to believe in the roster they have and that cap room should be spent on short-term deals on veterans that can bolster and support the roster — a lot of what the team should have done last year, but could not with 25 wins, maybe they can with 35 instead.

Maybe the big splash is getting Dwight Howard back on a 2+1 deal (so he can get Bird Rights) on a little more reasonable salary. I don’t know. This free agency period is kind of screwy with the cap increasing so much and everyone having money.

It is very hard to get a sense of what the Magic will do. I think the path becomes a bit clearer after the Draft and the first domino begins to fall. Or maybe I am just pessimistic about the Magic’s free agency prospects.

Next: 'This Magic Moment' about a team that still resonates

I should have another mailbag shortly after the season ends with more of your questions. Thanks for your patience. It should be an interesting offseason!