Though the Orlando Magic are not yet a definitive lottery team, the Magic can find major solutions to a number of its glaring problems in the 2016 NBA draft.
The Orlando Magic are sitting four games out of the final Playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, still giving them an outside shot at making the NBA Playoffs and avoiding a fourth straight year in the NBA Lottery.
March is the month many NBA fans begin turning their focus to the Draft ahead and regardless of whether the Magic are in the Lottery or playing on past mid-April, every team has to have some focus on which players to add during the NBA Draft. As such, it seems appropriate to begin to preview some of the talent the Magic could land in the 2016 NBA Draft.
There are likely two franchise players in this draft, but Orlando may not be in the running for either — for the first time in four years. Even if the Magic select late in the Lottery, there are a number of talents which could drastically improve the team.
In richer drafts, often the guys selected at the end of the lottery become crucial impact players in their career as role players rather than stars. One need look no further than the fact Paul Pierce (selected 10th overall in 1998) and Andre Iguodala (selected ninth overall in 2004) were both such players, the case that the Magic can snag a major talent is clearly there.
Entering Monday’s games, Orlando is slated to have the 11th best Lottery odds.
That is not to say the Magic will definitely get a starting-level player through the draft this year or even whether the team will keep its pick. It is less likely the team smashes a home run drafting late in the lottery.
But general manager Rob Hennigan has proven one thing definitively: he is a good drafter and talent scout.
The Magic got Elfrid Payton essentially with the No. 12 pick and some change, so that too is proof major talents can be had in the late lottery. While Payton’s career as a star still hangs in the balance, it is clear he was one worth taking a risk on.
Then, there is also the argument the Magic deal this pick. That may prove frustrating to fans who salivate at the idea of a great rookie talent, but the point in the rebuild may have been crossed — the point at which Hennigan begins to think “win now” and adding a rookie that needs development does not serve that purpose.
Even if the Magic do ultimately deal this pick, it is still a good exercise to see what the team would or would not be passing on. There are lots of opportunities come draft time.
Given that the team is still young, if a great player were obtained to blend into the machine, it would still be worth taking another prospect.
Next: Game Changers
Tier 1: Brandon Ingram, Ben Simmons
Brandon Ingram and Ben Simmons are the premier talents of this draft class. NBADraft.net currently has Simmons slotted at No. 1 with Ingram right behind him. And debate is raging between the two for that top spot.
Simmons is given no less comparison than LeBron James by NBADraft.net. That is high praise. His physical attributes and style of play speak of a power similar to James.
When Simmons gets going full speed toward the rim, there is little that can stop him. That Karl Malone drive is there when he has the ball in his hands, and few forwards are as freight train-like as Simmons most certainly is.
Perhaps a better comparison than James would be Blake Griffin. Simmons is capable of putting the ball on the floor and creating, much like Griffin who averaged more than five assists per game last year as a 4-man no less.
Simmons is also teachable and humble, which will give him the rounded personality general managers salivate over.
He is a great playmaker who is certain to blend well on any team. The term “can’t miss” could easily be thrown, howsoever inappropriate those pressures are at times.
Simmons is 6-foot-10 and 240 pounds, with a very NBA-ready body. Though he is just a freshman at LSU, the comparisons to the all-time great have been thrown around.
Again, Griffin’s days at Oklahoma were sparked with similar excitement to what Simmons is generating. There is no small benefit in being a highlight machine either, as fan attention is great for any NBA prospect. Jersey sales are a given with Simmons even if his team eventually misses out on the NCAA Tournament.
Brandon Ingram of Duke meanwhile is as smooth a swingman as they come. He is reminiscent of former Magic great Tracy McGrady.
Like McGrady, he is long enough at 6-foot-9 that he can outstretch just about any opponent for a clean look at the basket. He can potentially be a lot like Kevin Durant in almost never getting blocked in the mid-range. He also has the shooting stroke to thrive at shooting guard, should a team want to place him in the backcourt.
Ingram needs work in the weight room, but Durant excelled without ever adding much strength. Pure basketball skills and intangibles alone are enough to substantiate that at a minimum Ingram will be a huge impact player.
He has the potential skill-wise to be a number one option, and he is efficient with the ball in his hands. It does not stick with Ingram because he can get a good shot with two dribbles.
As a rule of thumb, a player should typically use no more than three dribbles to create a shot, and Ingram seldom lets the ball stick in isolation. That really cannot be stated boldly enough for the positive it is.
Next: Sure Fire Starters
Tier 2: Dragan Bender, Jaylen Brown, Kris Dunn, Jamal Murray, Skal Labissiere
There are likely four or five more players in this draft who will be quality role players or minor stars in their own rights.
The Magic are really at a point where another quality player could tip the balance in the team’s favor, especially if they can contribute immediately as they mature and develop.
Orlando needs both shooting and a defensive, big-bodied frontcourt player. All of this can be found if the team drafts between No. 3 and No. 8, which is by no means a given with the Magic currently slotted to draft at pick No. 11. Nor should the Magic want to drop that low in the draft.
If the Magic wanted to get a starting 2-guard to shift Victor Oladipo into a spark-plug bench role, the chance is there.
Providence’s Kris Dunn, Kentucky’s Jamal Murray and California’s Jaylen Brown all could represent backcourt options for a quality starter at the minimum. With Mario Hezonja and Victor Oladipo and Evan Fournier in the mix, it is unlikely the Magic aim to get a 2-man, but at the same time, if a major talent is available when Orlando selects, it would be foolish to move away from drafting the best talent available.
Dunn is a big point guard who could easily serve as a combo guard in the NBA. The 6-foot-4 junior from Providence has the size to play 2-guard but really is a playmaking talent who needs time at the 1.
He handles the ball well enough to thrive in pick and roll basketball, but he also can create his own shot. The Magic could get the coveted isolationist it needs to win close games at the end, and Orlando has been in more close games than any other team.
Dunn is really long like Elfrid Payton, but he is a much better shooter and could help solve Orlando’s issues at point guard. The Magic may still be searching for their point guard of the future, as incriminating as it seems to say Payton has been a disappointment as a sophomore.
Jaylen Brown of California is another phenomenal athlete. Many see him as one of the top picks in the Draft, but he could very well be limited and be perfect for drafting as a role player with other solid pieces around him.
He should be an elite defender with some seasoning, and it has been Orlando’s tendency to draft strong defensive backcourt players.
That alone makes Brown a possibility if he slips down Draft boards, if not because he overly fits the mold Hennigan has sought so far.
He is an exceptional leaper and will create highlights, but the Magic currently have no shortage of that already on the team. Brown would add further depth, but may not be Orlando’s top player on any draft boards.
Dragan Bender and Skal Labissiere are both solutions to the rim protection the Magic have lacked. Both players could be played at the 4-spot, and given the slight frame of both big men, they would at least initially be better off at power forward anyway.
Labissiere has been a little bit disappointing to many Wildcats fans at Kentucky, but the raw tools are too good to overlook.
He is defintely skilled with a good and mechanically sound jump shot. He has a high enough basketball IQ it seems pretty obvious he is going to figure it out.
He works hard and at the minimum could better serve as a backup 5 than Dewayne Dedmon. Dedmon has worked immensely to expand his skill set, but Labissiere already has it and will likely be a steady role player in the NBA.
The Magic have upcoming scorers and Labissiere is not someone that could be steadily helped off at at the 4-spot given that he can be a court stretcher. His underwhelming performance this year will likely make him an available option if Orlando selects after pick 10.
Bender perhaps is the riskiest but best project after the top-2 names in the draft. He hails from Bosnia & Herzegovina, and watching his scouting videos it is clear his ability to run the court will allow him to thrive in this fast paced era of basketball.
Bender can finish powerfully and his long frame allows him to be a dominant offensive rebounder. He has great hands around the basket and a number of moves in the post that reflect his great skill set well.
Bender is a borderline franchise player, and the Magic would likely have to trade up in the draft to have a chance at him.
But given Orlando’s need for another dominant big man, Bender could give Orlando the dominant 4-man that would allow for Nikola Vucevic to be properly complemented. Landing him just might be an unlikely long shot.
Next: Role Players Extraordinares
Tier 3: Ivan Rabb, Brice Johnson, Jakob Poeltl
Continuing the theme of finding a defining talent at the 4 and 5 spot, Ivan Rabb, Brice Johnson and Jakob Poetl are all big men that could help Orlando a lot in the interior.
Rabb is a 6-foot-10 power forward from Cal who looks to be a consummate 4-man. He is still pretty thin, but he has a skill set which could allow him to thrive as a quicker power forward. He finishes extremely well which would pair well with guards that can get out in transition with him.
Rabb also is a top-notch rim protector, which is what Orlando needs if it wants to make the Vucevic situation really work out.
Rabb is superb with help-side defense, and while Aaron Gordon is the starting 4 for now, the Magic could really benefit from having a strong 3-man rotation at the 4/5 spots. Most of the better clubs in the NBA have strong big men coming off the bench.
From Tristan Thompson in Cleveland to Enes Kanter in Oklahoma City to Festus Ezeli, Anderson Varejao and Marreese Speights in Golden State, the better teams are replete with talented backup bigs. The Magic need another big player at the 4/5 spots, and that is independent of what a great talent Gordon already is.
If the Magic obtained Rabb, it would get the proper talent potentially to pair with Vucevic, or at least have a capable power forward off the bench.
Brice Johnson also represents a mean to that end. He is a smart player who will likely adapt quickly to the NBA. He is a four-year player at North Carolina, so he will not come in naive and unprepared. He finishes well and could potentially be a defensive stretch-4 — the best kind.
Johnson is mobile and could maybe be a lot like one-time Magic forward Horace Grant. That is the high upside for Johnson, a power forward who seamlessly plugs into an offense from day one.
Utah’s Jakob Poeltl really only makes sense if Hennigan believes he could be the defensive 5 that would replace Nikola Vucevic. But he may think just that. Poeltl’s natural skills could render him a high pick though, which would make this option obsolete. He has great hands and moves well.
Poeltl has a strong enough skill set he will draw double teams in the post. In a lot of ways, he is just like Nikola Vucevic, but with a much stronger defensive bend.
If he fell to Orlando’s slot, he could be a high-reward project to hone behind Vucevic as a potential, but not definitive replacement.
Even if the Magic groomed him to be an impressive non-starter, he could be sold off in the fashion of Marcin Gortat (but hopefully with a much better return than that awful trade). The Magic would look really tough in the second unit if Vucevic’s backup were as gifted in the post as he is.
Next: So, where might the Magic go?
All things said…
It is still excruciatingly early to evaluate just what the Magic will do with its draft pick this year. We truly do not even know definitively that it will be a lottery pick, though it is seeming more certain with each passing game Orlando has some ping pong balls in the hopper.
There are so many potential targets for this draft, and this slideshow really only considered a standout handful of the names that will be there.
Among the other names that could show up linked to Orlando include Domantas Sabonis of Gonzaga, the son of all-time great Arvydis Sabonis; Diamond Stone of Maryland, Stephen Zimmerman of UNLV; Buddy Hield of Oklahoma; and Malik Beasley of Florida State.
Sabonis, in particular, is an intriguing draw for a lot of teams because of his pedigree and all-around brilliant skill set that is not dissimilar to his father’s. But there could be more darkhorses still to leap up draft boards as the NCAA season winds down and March Madness comes and goes.
Orlando is a team with a few notable needs. A defensive-minded big man to add to the mix is in order. Orlando still wants to address its backcourt by adding a tempo-controlling guard who can shoot the ball (this could happen in free agency). Getting another shooter is also on the list, because the Magic still need court spacing and jettisoning Channing Frye left the Magic one sharpshooter short while it was already badly hurting in that area.
The Magic obviously cannot address all their needs via the draft anymore. That point in the rebuild has likely passed. But even with a low lottery pick or mid-first round selection the Magic could find immediate help and prospects to shore up some of the weaknesses of the current roster.
Hennigan has typically done very well in drafts, and the Magic will be in play to do some wheeling and dealing on draft night too.
Orlando is in a favorable cap situation with a lot of brilliant assets on the team that could be used as leverage to obtain the star talent the Magic are currently lacking. It is not overly likely that Orlando lands one of the two franchise players in this draft, but it is also not impossible.
Scott Skiles should exert his influence in the matter and give Hennigan an idea of what he most wants to complete the current roster. Skiles has shown a propensity toward crafting a defensive team, but in developing this team’s identity the Magic have still shown a sore weakness in scoring the ball. Getting a primary scorer is possible through the draft, but if Orlando cannot land Simmons or Ingram, it can look toward free agency to get its premiere player.
No matter what the situation, draft night will be a chance for Orlando to further its prospects as a viable club for the postseason.
Before the team ascends to that level, it is going to require some tinkering and likely a big splash in free agency. Nothing is certain yet, but this is a draft that could end up being a pretty good class of rookies.
Next: How to solve a problem like the Orlando Magic's backcourt
We will continue to look at the prospects throughout March Madness and leading up to the draft as we consider just who could be right for the Magic.