With the Orlando Magic arriving at the midpoint of the NBA season, it is high time to assess their performance.
The Orlando Magic have nearly arrived at the midpoint of the season — Wednesday’s game against the Philadelphia 76ers is game 41 of 82. Sample sizes are now big enough to draw concrete conclusions. Gone is Evan Fournier‘s star-like eminence, returned is Nikola Vucevic‘s low post dominance.
We have seen enough now to know what is real and what is mirage, and assessing the talents of this roster seems appropriate now.
Each player was rated by a panel of five OMD writers (David Iwanowski, Zach Palmer, Philip Rossman-Reich, Joe Buckley and myself), assigning ratings not unlike those used in the popular 2K video game series.
Maybe more people are using the Magic this season in online gaming sessions, but the staff here at OMD sees the picture a little different from those in the video game industry.
Here are our mid-season grades for the Magic:
Next: Nikola Vucevic to the post
Nikola Vucevic has come around offensively in the last 15 games entering Monday’s tilt in Atlanta. He has scored 20 points or more in 10 of those games and re-established himself as Orlando’s No. 1 option.
That assertiveness earned Vucevic a high mark in the offensive ratings, and it really should have. He is the Magic’s lone post-up threat and the only player capable of drawing consistent double teams on the roster.
When Vucevic is at his best, he can carry this offense — be it through step-back jumpers or controlling the game in the paint.
Even so, Vucevic has some additional learning to do.
The last three games he has averaged 4.3 assists per game and that is really a mark he can trend toward. With the attention he draws in the post he has the chance to create for the perimeter shooters, but Vucevic’s passing out of doubles is not yet on the level that maybe it should be.
Learning which pass to make and also improving his timing on his pass outs should drive Vucevic closer to being the kind of passing center he can be. It is not out of the realm of possibility to envision him working toward a level of distribution similar to Marc Gasol.
Defensively, Vucevic has been better, but this is still his weak area. He is just limited, not bad.
Vucevic is never going to make lightning quick rotations nor jaw-dropping blocks. He can be good at the rim, but he is not a shot blocker.
Vucevic is averaging 1.1 blocks per game this season which is his highest since his first season in Orlando. Vucevic is contesting 34.8 percent of shots at the rim and opponents are shooting 54 percent on contested looks. He is saving 3.72 raw points per 100 possessions, and teams are still scarcely hesitant to take it into the paint on the Magic.
What hurts more still is that he is not boarding quite with the same level of ferocity, though it may be an overblown concern in some senses.
Vucevic averages 11.8 rebounds per game during his career but is at just 9.7 per game this season. Orlando has been a better team on the glass, but it has been by committee.
Seeing Vucevic reassert himself as a force on the boards would be a refreshing change to the second half of this season.
Next: Tobias on Fire?
Tobias Harris has quietly had a rather good season thus far, with averages of 14.9 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game entering Monday’s game. But what has been best about Harris has been his efficiency and consistency, even if his scoring has dipped from previous seasons.
Harris has seen his role reduced a little, with the Magic boasting better balance on its roster. However, he has continued to shoot about the same clip from the field of 46 percent, and he has taken a few less threes this season.
While Harris has hardly been a prototypical small forward, he has made his role work for Orlando and he earns passing marks on both ends of the court.
Harris has struggled the last six games though, scoring in double figures in just three of them while the Magic have lost all but one contest. He played 44 minutes in the overtime loss to the Toronto Raptors in London, taking a more assertive role with 13 field goal attempts and 16 points in the game.
The Magic need Harris to be their No. 2 scoring option because he is the most dynamic threat and is the Magic’s best isolation scorer. When the Magic want to clear it out and get a good shot, Harris remains the best option.
Defensively, Harris has remained about average. He is coming up with 1.6 blocks/steals per game this season and helping Orlando get out on the break. Keeping his hands active has payed off for Harris as it has for many of his teammates.
Next: Elfrid's progress?
Elfrid Payton presents an interesting paradox on improvement: On on side of the coin, there is the fact the Orlando Magic’s overall offense has improved, a result of Payton’s ability to jumpstart his teammates.
On the flip side, Payton’s individual scoring efforts have improved little. His shot is still a work in progress, and he is still typically dared to shoot the ball. Reconciling the two seems to arrive at the middle ground of our ratings.
It can only leave us to wonder just how good Payton would be if he possessed a reliable and accurate jump shot. He is still shooting 41.5 percent from the floor this year and 30.6 percent from 3-point range. Payton shoots an improved 41.9 percent from 10 to 16 feet but from 16 feet to the arc he is worse than ever at 25.7 percent.
Given Payton takes 30 percent of his shots from 10 feet to the arc, this represents an area from which he must be far more effective.
Defensively, Payton can be a duality too.
He is best paired with Victor Oladipo, and Payton’s best contributions come through his forcing turnovers. But individually he has been less impressive, and opposing point guards have been able to get it going against Payton one-on-one.
It is hard to give Payton all the blame when an opposing guard gets it going, but a large bulk of it has to go to the primary defender. Payton earns nearly a ‘college B’ for his defense, but to make the leap into an ‘A’ it would be requisite that he starts playing better on ball defense.
Next: Changing Channing
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B+
Offensive Rating: 80.4
Defensive Rating: 76.6
Channing Frye has just about recaptured the form he displayed in his breakout season in Phoenix. Frye has been better on both ends of the court this year, and he is in fact shooting a career-high 42.2 percent from 3-point range this season. Also improved has been his overall field goal percentage which is 45.9 percent, a full six percentage points higher than he was last season.
Frye’s biggest improvement has come in getting some buckets around the basket, while knocking down threes at a higher rate than ever before. While Frye is still attempting 68.9 percent of his looks as threes, that mark is down slightly from last year’s 71 percent and the small improvement has been apparent. He has put the ball on the floor a little more and is having one of his best offensive seasons from an efficiency standpoint.
Frye has also been passable on the defensive end.
Like many of his teammates, Frye is keeping his hands in the air and helping the team come up with steals and deflections. Per-36 minutes, Frye is averaging 1.9 steals/blocks this season which is up from last year’s 1.7.
It is a mark that hovers at about where Harris is, and the cousins do a fine job of helping Orlando play better team defense. Frye’s defense had been atop the list of reasons he was not able to see more playing time last year, but this year the improvement under Scott Skiles has been noticeable.
Next: Breakout season, please?
On a defensive basis, Aaron Gordon should start for the Orlando Magic. He is the team’s premier perimeter defender and one of the best defensive playmakers on the roster, if not the best.
It is eliminating his silly errors and keeping his head in the game that are most imperative at this point.
When Aaron Gordon is on point both offensively and defensively, we have seen him single-handedly take over games. Players like Gordon with strong coast-to-coast capabilities can impose their will on a game, and at the best of his ball-handling he looks much like point-forward Blake Griffin.
The Magic did use a No. 4 overall pick to obtain his services, so maybe it is time they press that issue and start the youngster. He has tantalized the team with his potential for two seasons now, but Gordon is tired of hearing the talk of potential. He should be tired of hearing it, because he has all the talents to become a starting NBA forward.
Gordon did not rank overly high in his offensive scores here at OMD, but mostly that is because we are really all still waiting on him to put it altogether.
A lot of his discontinuity stems from the lack of playing time, however, making the “Play Gordon” button something of a circular loop: Gordon needs to be comfortable to get more playing time, but to get more comfort he needs more playing time.
That really leaves us with a simple conclusion: Keep increasing his minutes in the second half. Eventually start him. Make the future now.
Next: Vic the Quick
Victor Oladipo has become Orlando’s biggest enigma this season. He is pressing to make a run at the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award.
But in his transformation, he has seemingly been getting better at all of his strengths while falling further behind still at his weak points.
It makes grading him a conundrum, and the split on his offensive and defensive rating here is illuminating. Oladipo has been an overwhelming force defensively, but his shooting stroke is as mediocre as ever.
It has essentially resulted in Skiles moving him to the bench, because Oladipo cannot coexist with Elfrid Payton. Sure, the tandem is dominant at times and defensively leaves nothing more to be asked for (at least again on that “potential” basis).
But Oladipo still is not a shooting guard, because he is a guard whose primary strengths are not shooting the ball. It is forcing turnovers. It is getting out in transition. And it is even in creating offensive rebounds.
Oladipo’s biggest impacts often come in doing things other than pulling up from the perimeter.
He still also has not gotten much better at drawing contact. He is still shooting 25 percent from 3 to 10 feet and 35 percent from 10 to 16 feet. That does comprise an area from which just one-fifth of his shots come from, but Oladipo has been just 50 percent from 0 to 3 feet. Both of the last two seasons, he had been better than 55 percent.
Oladipo just is not making strides offensively, though his 3-point shot is now at a career high 34.5 percent. The thing is, the team needs that mark to approach 38 percent and it is really is not close.
The Magic have been forced to slot Evan Fournier at the starting 2-spot, and it has been with mixed results.
Figuring out how to best use Oladipo is now Skiles’ greatest challenge. He has made the right move initially in experimenting with Oladipo off the bench, but the Magic have faltered with him starting in place of the injured Elfrid Payton.
The Magic need court spacing Oladipo just cannot provide, which makes it a tricky proposition since Orlando needs every other input he has in the game.
Next: Rookie Jitters
Mario Hezonja has been a little disappointing, when honesty is fully in play.
He has done well in stints of games, but he has yet to establish any permanent place in the rotation and the team really has not benefited much from him yet.
He is still trying to feel out his way in the NBA. And while logic dictated that would be the case, there were many who set the bar quite high for Hezonja’s rookie season.
The jury is still out, on both ends of the court.
There are flashes to be sure. Hezonja has had some jaw-dropping passes and made great decisions on the fly in transition.
He could even be a guy who moonlights at the point guard position, as depth has pushed Scott Skiles into trying it already. Hezonja has all the basketball skills necessary to thrive in the NBA, but he is going to need time to learn.
The same problem that applies to Aaron Gordon applies to Hezonja. But the hope is by next season, the team sees him thriving in a defined role. That seems to be a reasonable progress marker if he can establish himself in the wake of a departed rotation player in front of him.
The Magic cannot keep everyone, and Hezonja’s day will come.
Offensively, he has impressed at points, and a lot of his defensive struggles are stemming from being aggressive enough that he will not avoid the rookie whistles.
Next: Evan Almighty??
Evan Fournier started the season as Orlando’s go-to No. 1 option. Everyone wondered if it would stay that way (spoiler alert: It did not), as Fournier had been little more than a role player prior to this season.
Fournier began the season attacking, and he played his way above the $10 million offer Fournier reportedly sought from the Magic before his extension date passed.
Not being able to re-sign Fournier has vast implications towards the future of this roster.
Essentially, the Magic may be left choosing between Fournier and Oladipo at some point. The decision will not be an easy one.
Fournier has showed an increased ability to involve his teammates, and he is putting the ball on the floor significantly more this season. His stats have now normalized, as he is averaging 13.9 points per game on 11.2 shots. It is still an increase from his 9.9 shot attempts last year, and his usage rate is roughly the same — he is just being more aggressive when he does get the ball.
On the defensive end, Fournier has stepped up and covered the best 2-guards in the NBA with mixed results.
Overall Fournier is competent at sliding his feet and staying in front of guys with much quicker first steps. He does not do anything on the basis of overwhelming athleticism, but rather he stays smart and avoids making too many silly mistakes.
Fournier averages three personal fouls per game, but he also only turns it over 1.8 times per game. Fournier is a low-risk option either to be a complementary shooter in the first unit or the primary playmaker in the second.
Fournier offers the Magic the best perimeter shooting it has outside of Frye, and Fournier’s shooting at about his career average this season from behind the arc (38 percent).
Next: Old School
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C+
Offensive Rating: 79.4
Defensive Rating: 74.0
Andrew Nicholson’s surprising ascent to relevancy has been one of this season’s main storylines. He mostly lingered in obscurity prior to the Skiles era but he has now become a main cog in the second unit and his court-stretching set shot from behind the arc has become a big part of his value to Orlando.
Nicholson still has strides to make defensively, but his length covers a multitude of sins. Often beat off the dribble, Nicholson is one of the better at recovering to contest a shot or get a block from behind.
Nicholson is averaging 7.2 points and four rebounds per game in 17 minutes per night, but his shooting has been relatively on point. He is shooting the highest field goal percentage he had since his rookie season, while also seeing the most minutes of his NBA career.
It seems Nicholson has a spot in the NBA, but it remains unclear whether that niche can continue to be filled in Orlando.
The Magic may receive some bites for his services as the trade deadline approaches and his contract is friendly enough that Orlando could involve him as a throw in on a bigger deal.
Does it make sense to trade one of the best bench scorers? Probably, but only if Orlando can snag a post defender and shot blocker. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Nicholson has been showcased to be moved at optimum value.
Next: The Smithshop
Jason Smith has been a pleasant surprise this season for Orlando. He ranks No. 2 in the NBA in mid-range jumpers, and the Magic may not have had a better high-post shooter in franchise history since Horace Grant.
Smith has also been great with help-side defense and rotations, and he is blocking 1.7 shots per-36. Smith also averages 15 points and six boards per-36, highlighting just how effective he has been in an average of only 15 minutes per night.
The offensive and defensive ratings given by our panel seem to indicate Smith could serve a larger role.
He is shooting near a career high of 51.4 percent from the field and the only quip may be that he does not step a couple feet back to launch the three. But Smith’s ability to play within himself and stay in his shooting range is what has made him so effective.
The Magic snagged a key role player, and few expected his role to be filled so well.
As a true seven-footer, Smith is able to fill the vacuum at center when Vucevic is out of the game. Sometimes role players have career years and Skiles seems to have ignited one within Smith.
Next: Dedmon Dead Off
Dewayne Dedmon has fallen out of the rotation, and it is fairly clear that his lack of offense is to blame. He received the lowest score of all players offensively, and Dedmon lacks a lot of the tools that could make him an effective scorer.
It is still painfully obvious when he catches the ball he is not comfortable with it in his hands. Defenses know this, too.
The result has been Dedmon struggling even to do what he does do well: finish at the rim.
Dedmon is shooting just 49.2 percent from the floor this season after finishing last year at 56 percent. He is averaging 3.4 points, 3.3 rebounds and a block per game. If he could gain some semblance of an offensive repertoire, his defensive acumen would keep him in games.
But even as defensively minded as Skiles is, it has proven hard to get Dedmon quality minutes. He has appeared in just 24 games and is averaging 12 minutes per contest. Ideally, that figure had been doubled in pre-season expectations of him improving. He just has not.
Next: No Napier?
Shabazz Napier at times has been a very pleasant surprise, especially considering he did come at the cost of a highly protected second round pick that likely never will be sent out.
But overall, Napier has struggled to cover bigger point guards, and he finds himself often mismatched at his own position. Truly, Napier is the “mouse in the house” on defense, and he sets Orlando back defensively.
It is a shame because at his very best Napier is a quality backup, capable of igniting runs and hitting big shots. He is also fearless.
But something seems to indicate Napier has had the best chance he will at getting bigger minutes. He is shooting just 33 percent from the field and 30 percent from three. In other words, when Elfrid Payton is taken out for not being a shooter, Napier comes in with equal futility.
Next: 5 Players Orlando Could Pursue in Trades
Despite being billed as a shooter coming out of UConn, he has not established himself in the NBA as a gunner, which is probably the best-case scenario for him. Napier is capable of putting the ball in the bucket, but when a shooter is missing shots, his value declines precipitously.