The Orlando Magic have some talent to work with this season, but how will head coach Scott Skiles set his rotations?
It is a matter fans deride, analysts obsess over and coaches pull their hair out for (what is left of it in some cases, ahem): How should the minutes be distributed among rotation players?
It is never clear cut, nor is it easy. Different players bring different strengths and weaknesses, and complicating that some players play best with certain teammates on the court. Determining how best to amalgamate given units is the toughest job of a good coach. And make no mistake, only good coaches ever really get a handle on how to best run their team.
The hope here is coach Scott Skiles both keeps his remaining hair and discovers the secrets to getting the most out of a talented Magic roster. There will be position battles to be settled in training camp. As it is, the staff here at OMD all agrees on four of the five starters, but that fifth starter is very much in the air.
Which direction Skiles chooses to go with that fifth starter, and how he shapes the offense around both the first and second unit is really anyone’s guess at this point. There are arguments to be made for small ball, and equally valid ones that suppose the Magic need a dominant 4-man to compensate for center Nikola Vucevic’s defensive shortcomings.
At this juncture, it is difficult to ascertain which view is right.
The Magic could simply always aim to have the best scoring unit possible at all times. But balance is really the key to winning basketball. As it is, the Magic’s non-core players all offer disparate strengths that will help shape the identity this team is still striving to achieve.
Let us look at some minute allocations that at least make sense, while it is easy to admit this is nothing more than an exercise or an ideal rotation. Players will earn their minutes and guys will define their roles, mostly on the basis of their play, not conjecture such as this.
That said, it is hardly a futile exercise to attempt to discern how Skiles will divide his minutes this season.
Next: The Backcourt
The Backcourt
Point Guard: Payton, 28 minutes / Watson, 17 minutes / Napier, 3 minutes
Shooting Guard: Oladipo, 34 minutes / Watson, 4 minutes / Evan Fournier, 10 minutes
The Orlando Magic have had the fortune of drafting back-to-back All-Rookie First team selections at the guard spots. These guards, of course, are third-year guard Victor Oladipo and second-year floor general Elfrid Payton.
Few dispute these will be the opening night starters (health permitting). But as to whether it remains that way is highly dependent on some improvements coming from both.
Payton’s abysmal jumper can hinder the offense, while Oladipo simply needs to be better at taking full advantage of his actual strengths.
If either were to lose their stranglehold on starting, it would likely be Payton. Behind Payton are two talented point guards: C.J. Watson and youngster Shabazz Napier. Watson, in particular, offers some positives Payton does not. He is now 30 years old and has built sufficient NBA experience to run a club. He has been a fringe starter most of his NBA career.
Watson is a stable option who is fully capable of keeping his turnovers down. He shoots better than any other point guard on the roster and last year knocked down 40 percent from behind the arc. He could potentially be the guy Orlando needs to run its offense or settle things down if the team is in a slump, even if Payton is the long-term flashier solution.
Accordingly, considering this prospect seems prudent if there is going to be an accurate minute determination in the backcourt.
Napier also can score well in stretches, and he is going to be instant offense at times. He will have his nights. And noting that minutes can vary greatly dependent upon opposition and the way a game is taking shape is vital. There will be nights when Watson gets the “starter’s minutes,” or closes games. And there will be other nights when Payton drops a triple double, as he did twice last year.
So how many minutes can we expect from Payton, Oladipo, Watson and the rest of the Magic guards?
Let us keep in mind Watson is a combo guard, not dissimilar from Oladipo. That means he will likely see minutes at both guard spots, while Payton is more limited to playing point. Also backing up Oladipo will be both the rookie Mario Hezonja and sharpshooter Evan Fournier.
Adding to the intrigue now is the fact Hezonja and Fournier will both see time at the 3-spot, quite interchangeably. Both are probably more “shooting guard” than “small forward,” but against the right lineups neither will have any problem filling either wing position. Moreover, the differences offensively between 2s and 3s can be negligible.
So overly worrying about who is the 2 and the 3 is pretty pointless all things considered. Fournier and Hezonja are somewhat similar players, but that could easily work toward Orlando’s advantage. It is never bad to have too many shooters on the court, and the dry spells the Magic experienced last year may be far less with two guys knowingly capable of getting buckets.
Next: The Forwards
Forwards
Small Forward: Tobias Harris, 34 minutes / Hezonja, 14 minutes
At small forward Harris is going to get most of the minutes as the team’s top isolation scorer. The remaining minutes go to the tandem of Hezonja and Fournier.
Power Forward: Aaron Gordon, 20 minutes / Jason Smith, 9 minutes / Dewayne Dedmon 9 minutes / Channing Frye, 10 minutes / Andrew Nicholson “DNP?”
Power forward is easily the most complicated battle for Orlando. 2014 No. 4 overall pick Aaron Gordon is certainly due to receive minutes, and after how he impressed in summer league this position could be his to lose eventually.
But does he start opening night? Maybe not.
The Magic do have an experienced (if not fully mediocre) Jason Smith, and he should be able to provide some mid range shooting and toughness.
Dewayne Dedmon is the strongest defender, perhaps even “by far,” but his noted offensive shortcomings may leave his teammates frustrated as his man plays “floater” and leaves the Magic essentially playing 4 on 5.
Lastly, Channing Frye is the highest paid and the best shooter at the 4-spot, but he is also arguably the weakest defender on the entire team. That does not seem to fit Skiles preferences, so it is reasonable to assume Frye loses more and more minutes as the season presses on. Frye’s allotted 10 minutes could easy fall to a flat, unhealthy ‘zero.’
Or he could become “Phoenix Frye” and become the legitimate starting power forward that the Magic thought he was when acquired. The ambiguity regarding his future (and role) makes predicting his minutes maybe the shakiest of all of the forwards.
Will the position in any way resemble this pure platoon? Probably not. And perhaps the real projection here is to be found in who plays the most minutes at different junctures of the season.
This position could be a revolving door, and Skiles will take the time to evaluate which player works best both with different combinations of teammates and against different types of opposing frontcourts.
The bottom line is it has to be better than last year, but as to whether any of these forwards can step up and be a go-to starter? That is really difficult to say at this point.
Gordon offers the best hope, but he is inexperienced and is still finding his way in the NBA.
Skiles has his work cut out for himself in figuring out how to handle the power forward minutes. Harris is also not fully and exclusively a small forward, though it seems that is where he is likely to spend most of the rest of his NBA career.
Next: The Men in the Middle
Center
Center: Nikola Vucevic, 32 minutes / Dedmon, 8 minutes / Greg Stiemsma, 8 minutes
Center is the least ambiguous position on the team because of the talent disparity between Vucevic and his backups. Vucevic will get most of the minutes, but he is still not a huge minutes type of guy. That is not a huge concern with Dedmon and Stiemsma both being able-bodied backups. It may be that Smith sees some minutes at center too.
Whatever Skiles does, it will basically be plugging hole while Vucevic gets his rest. On nights when Vucevic has foul trouble though, Dedmon and Stiemsma will be more vital. That caveat is worth taking note of, because centers do experience foul trouble on a regular basis, but the Magic are far from stranded when it happens.
Next: What it all means
The Bottom Line
The Magic have four premier young talents on the team in Payton, Vucevic, Oladipo and Harris. Everyone else is auditioning for a bigger role, or a prominent role, on a team with no true identity and a first-year coach.
Skiles will play as big a role as any in determining how this team takes shape. But positions are won by players, not coaches.
As Urban Meyer said regarding his quarterback issue this year at Ohio State, “I won’t be picking the starting quarterback, the players will be.” That principle always applies in position battles, at every level of play. While the coach’s preferences do play a role in who starts, it is ultimately up to the guys in question to produce — flat out.
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That means hard work and defense will go a long way, particularly so if matters are tough to decide. When a guy is going to be a complementary player, it is absolutely requisite that his effort level is nearly excessive (if such were even possible).
The Magic have the depth this season to begin to tinker with lineups and begin to form an identity, even differing identities based on first and second unit. The team has solved some of its shooting woes by internal improvement (if Gordon’s 6-for-12 3-point shooting in Summer League means anything) and by adding Hezonja in the draft.
Even figuring how many minutes Skiles is just going to hand a 19-year-old rookie, though, is also tough to guess or figure.
The Magic have some options, but the team is equally replete with difficult to answer questions. At this point, the minute allocations here do make sense on paper, but the 4-spot is a seeming mess, and hopefully that is not overly indicative of what it actually becomes this season.
Will it be a true platoon between three to five players? Possibly.
Could one guy stand out and become a true, full-time starter? Yes, absolutely.
What do you think will happen, though, readers?