The Orlando Magic were relatively inactive during free agency, deciding instead to focus on their own players and core. They still added some key players.
Trying to figure out whether a player is meeting production expectations commensurate to salary is one of the great mysteries left in NBA analytics. Aside from trying to predict injuries (read Zach Lowe of Grantland’s latest post on that), predicting potential value is soemthing many people smarter than you or I are constantly working on.
It is really freaking hard to predict future events with only past data to go off of. Almost impossible.
This edition of our analysis of value on the Magic’s roster than is going to take on a bit of a different tone. It is too difficult for our purposes to try and project with statistical precision how guys will interact and how these new players will play on their new team.
Frankly, it might be somewhat hard to pin all this down or make any kind of accurate prediction.
To get a brief glimpse into value, we are going to use a rudimentary measure and simply compare and contrast production and salary. As I noted in the introduction, I took down all the salaries and PER from the 2015 season from Basketball-Reference and put them in a table. I found that the relationship between PER and $/PER is somewhat linear (a relatively strong correlation) which can give us some idea of what kind of proportion PER and salary should be in. Largely, this is an effort to compare and contrast whether the Magic are getting adequate production for the value they are paying.
There is no perfect measure for this so these conclusions are going to be somewhat grayer and more difficult to decipher.
We are breaking this down into three groups — the reserve players, the newcomers and the starting lineup (we will tackle them more in depth). We tackled the reserve players in the introduction. Here are the newcomers.
Next: C.J. Watson
C.J. Watson
The big free agent signing for the Magic is C.J. Watson. Brett went into his projections for Watson this year and we seem to be expecting about the same type of production from him this year in a similar backup point guard role.
Last year, Watson averaged a career-high 10.0 points per game on a career-best 51.8 percent effective field goal percentage. Watson took advantage of the “contract year” bump. Even per 36 minutes though, Watson put up some of his best career numbers — 14.4 points and 5.3 assists.
Watson had a career season and rightfully cashed in.
Before getting to what this means for his current salary, let’s look at his performance last year:
Ordered by Salary
| Player | Salary | PER | $/PER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | 2,397,840 | 13.8 | 173,756.52 |
| Reggie Jackson (TOT) | 2,204,370 | 17.2 | 128,161.05 |
| Jeremy Lamb | 2,202,000 | 14.9 | 147,785.23 |
| C.J. Watson | 2,106,720 | 15.4 | 136,800.00 |
| Beno Udrih | 2,077,000 | 15.4 | 134,870.13 |
| Ramon Sessions (TOT) | 2,077,000 | 11.1 | 187,117.12 |
| Jordan Farmar | 2,077,000 | 9.9 | 209,797.98 |
Ordered by PER
| Player | Salary | PER | $/PER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Joseph | 2,023,261 | 15.5 | 130,532.97 |
| Mo Williams (TOT) | 3,750,000 | 15.4 | 243,506.49 |
| Gerald Green | 3,500,000 | 15.4 | 227,272.73 |
| C.J. Watson | 2,106,720 | 15.4 | 136,800.00 |
| Beno Udrih | 2,077,000 | 15.4 | 134,870.13 |
| Rodney Stuckey | 1,227,985 | 15.4 | 79,739.29 |
| Rajon Rondo (BOS) | 3,806,526.83 | 15.4 | 247,177.07 |
It seems that after his season last year, Watson proved himself to be quite a bargain. Among players with the same PER, Watson was about as effective as everyone else. His salary range for the past few years saw a ton of bargains for sure, especially from the point guard position.
The feeling with Watson is that they want him to produce at about the same level as he did last year. So what does that mean for his salary?
According to Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders, Watson is set to make $5 million. At his current production that gives him a $/PER of $324,675.32. All of a sudden that makes him look overpaid — the Pacers picked Rodney Stuckey over Watson, signing him to a three-year, $21 million deal, so maybe not completely overpaid.
Among point guards that made $5 million last year, there was Victor Oladipo (15.9 PER), Ricky Rubio (15.2 PER) and Darren Collison (17.5 PER). Looking at these guys, it feels like Watson got what the market said he should get and that he produced commensurate with these more mid-level players.
Essentially, Watson’s season last year helped boost him from low-salary player to mid-level player. And if he can keep producing at the levels he did last year, he should make good on that deal.
The Verdict: Market Appropriate
Next: Jason Smith
Jason Smith
Jason Smith feels like roster filler. The Magic needed a veteran to back up Nikola Vucevic and Dewayne Dedmon who could help spread the floor in case Channing Frye did not work out. A lot of what the Magic will want him to do is probably not going to show up on a stat sheet.
What his role will be is to make jumpers when he is open, be at least neutral on defense and help maintain professionalism in the locker room. For veterans, that is something a team will sometimes overpay for.
Smith signed a one-year, $4.5 million deal — essentially the same deal the Magic signed Ben Gordon to. Unlike Gordon though, Smith should at least contribute a little. As he did last year, at the very least.
Ordered by Salary
| Player | Salary | PER | $/PER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Scott | 3,333,333 | 15.1 | 220,750.53 |
| Tyler Hansbrough | 3,326,235 | 13.3 | 250,092.86 |
| Nerlens Noel | 3,315,120 | 15.0 | 221,008.00 |
| Jason Smith | 3,278,000 | 12.0 | 273,166.67 |
| Carlos Boozer | 3,250,000 | 16.4 | 198,170.73 |
| Enes Kanter (UTA) | 3,726,144.72 | 17.5 | 212,922.56 |
| Joel Freeland | 3,013,512 | 12.2 | 247,009.18 |
Ordered by PER
| Player | Salary | PER | $/PER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Amundson (NYK) | 225,566.42 | 12.5 | 18,045.31 |
| Joel Freeland | 3,013,512 | 12.2 | 247,009.18 |
| Clint Capela | 1,189,200 | 12.1 | 98,280.99 |
| Jason Smith | 3,278,000 | 12.0 | 273,166.67 |
| Furkan Aldemir | 3,000,000 | 12.0 | 250,000.00 |
| Drew Gooden | 1,448,000 | 11.9 | 121,680.67 |
| Jon Leuer | 967,500 | 11.9 | 81,302.52 |
Predictably, Smith is producing like an end-of-the-bench guy. The unfortunate thing is that he is being paid like a top-of-the-draft rookie. For rookies that can be a great value because they often over-produce their market-controlled salary. Veterans do not get that luxury.
Smith is clearly the worst value of all the players at his production level and probably one of the worst centers at his salary level.
So, of course, he got a pay increase.
At $4.3 million, his value obviously tanks. Other players at his salary range include Kris Humphries (15.4 PER), Luc Mbah a Moute (10.6 PER) and Cody Zeller (14.1 PER). Those are not world beaters as centers, but they either produce a bit more or are younger and have the potential to produce more.
At this point, Greg Stiemsma if he does indeed join the Magic roster seems like he could provide more value and fill that need for a rim protector. The Magic here seemed to spend money to ensure they got him and have him part of the team.
It seems here the Magic are paying for something other than his production on the court in signing him. Fortunately, it is a one-year deal so the risk is very low.
The Verdict: Low Risk, but Overpaid
Next: Shabazz Napier
Shabazz Napier
The Magic have one reclamation project this season in second-year guard Shabazz Napier.
Napier averaged 5.1 points per game on 38.2 percent shooting and 47.6 percent effective field goal percentage. He made 36.4 percent of his 3-pointers and then added 2.5 assists per game — and 9.3 points per 36 minutes and 4.6 assists per 36 minutes.
He came into the league with the gravitas of being one of the most recognizable players from the college game, being fresh off a national championship too. Napier had LeBron James‘ seal of approval.
He did not work out quite that well obviously. Especially since James jumped ship. Napier never really found his fit.
So the Magic essentially acquired a mid-first round draft pick on a rookie contract for nothing. There has to be some value in that and anything the Magic can get from him will be a bonus.
Ordered by Salary
| Player | Salary | PER | $/PER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Hood | 1,290,360 | 12.3 | 104,907.32 |
| Alan Anderson | 1,276,061 | 10.6 | 120,383.11 |
| Tim Hardaway | 1,250,640 | 12.1 | 103,578.95 |
| Shabazz Napier | 1,238,640 | 9.3 | 133,187.10 |
| Rodney Stuckey | 1,227,985 | 15.4 | 79,739.29 |
| Tony Wroten | 1,210,080 | 14.9 | 81,213.42 |
| Andre Roberson | 1,160,880 | 9.1 | 127,569.23 |
Ordered by PER
| Player | Salary | PER | $/PER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Carter | 3,911,981 | 9.6 | 407,498.02 |
| Troy Daniels (TOT) | 816,482 | 9.6 | 85,050.21 |
| Steve Blake | 2,077,000 | 9.5 | 218,631.58 |
| Shabazz Napier | 1,238,640 | 9.3 | 133,187.10 |
| Alexey Shved (HOU) | 1,094,018 | 9.3 | 117,636.42 |
| Andre Roberson | 1,160,880 | 9.1 | 127,569.23 |
| Markel Brown | 507,336 | 9.1 | 55,751.21 |
When looking at these comparisons, Napier compares well to backup players and end-of-the-bench guys. He probably is a little more expensive for those guys, but considering his salary, that is not a killer.
Where Napier appears to get teams is that he does have those first-round expectations on him. Because of his status as a first-round pick, you expect more. And when looking at his comparables by salary, they are all on their rookie contracts by and large and producing more.
Napier is not just a guy signing a minimum contract. Yet, it is like he is producing as a second round pick might or a minimum salary player. That is not what you want from a guy who is a first round pick. So the Heat virtually gave him away.
Really, this is just his second year and it is too early to tell what Napier can become. It may depend on how much an executive believes in what he did at Connecticut (I, personally, was not a big fan of his at Connecticut).
For the Magic, this is an important issue. He has a team option the team has to decide whether to pick up or not by the end of October. Picking up the option — worth about $1.4 million next season — is not too onerous. It should feel relatively assumed the Magic would do this, otherwise they would not have signed him to begin with.
The hope is that Napier continues to develop and improve with a different situation, although opportunity may not quite be there.
The Verdict: Too Early To Tell, but He Must Improve
Next: Conclusion
Conclusion
Looking at how the Magic did this summer in adding some pieces around their core, they did not hurt themselves too much. They simply paid what the market would bear.
Granted, Orlando did not do a whole lot of tinkering. They have their core and were just looking for player to fill roles.
With C.J. Watson, they paid the market price. If Watson can match last year’s production, he will meet expectations and provide value to the Magic. If he cannot hit that mark, his three-year deal is going to start looking a little shakier. Watson has been pretty steady throughout his career, so it seems like a decent bet.
In Jason Smith, the Magic seemed to target a guy for the end of their bench and picked him up. In a one-year, $4.3 million deal, the Magic do not suffer many losses other than perhaps feeling forced to play him. The numbers certainly suggest his production did not warrant the bump up in salary. So perhaps the Magic signed him for what he does for team chemistry or as a leader behind the scenes rather than his production.
As for Shabazz Napier, the Magic got a young player on the cheap essentially for free. It is too early to make any firm conclusions about his career (I would suspect the Magic pick up Napier’s option). He has to produce more to warrant the continued investment. Right now he is on the rookie scale but producing like an end-of-the-bench guy.
The expectations for Napier are much higher than that unfortunately because of his draft status and what he did in college.
The Magic overall did OK with their free agent selections and signings, it would seem. Their attention was elsewhere and not on these newcomers.
Next: Orlando Magic Fantasy Basketball Preview with Red Rock Basketball Podcast