Nikola Vucevic’s improvement is heavily reliant on his teammates, and with a more organized team he can begin to take the next steps in becoming a NBA All Star.
Nikola Vucevic has grown immensely in his time with the Orlando Magic, but it is tougher to say exactly how much better he can be.
Has Vucevic already reached his ceiling? Or is there a new level altogether for him to rise to?
Vucevic has his moments of pure dominance, both with the ball in his hands and in rebounding the basketball. He has increased his scoring average each season in Orlando after having been a minor contributor his rookie season in Philadelphia.
The main chip from the Dwight Howard deal has gone on to become a 19-point, 11-rebound per night player.
Further improvement relies on getting him the ball, simply.
Vucevic frequently became a victim of a lack of touches last season, despite attempting 16.3 field goal attempts per game. Given his 52.3 percent shooting, he needs to get a few more looks up still. Vucevic, if featured, could average a good bit more than 20 per game. It is tough to say how much more, because we do not see Vucevic just assert himself repeatedly.
Too frequently, he allows opposing bigs to push him off the block and further away from the basket. When he does catch it from 10 feet and in, he scores at an even higher frequency than his face-ups. It is the result of having soft touch and a nice ambidextrous element to his game that allows him to find crafty finishes in traffic.
Vucevic passes the eye test for an offensively dominant player, but he is only when he wants to be. We have already touched on the mental aspects of Vucevic’s game, and if he stays focused he can be an All Star this season. Focus is everything. Well, that and initiative.
Much like Victor Oladipo and Tobias Harris, the skills are all there. Determining how to approach the game mentally at this point is what allows Vucevic to become the next level in NBA center hierarchy.
Next: Scoring and Shooting
Scoring and Shooting
Vucevic is a pretty efficient scorer and good shooter. Shooting is one of the best talents to exploit, and to get the most out of Vucevic, he needs more shots. Vucevic displayed his talents in the mid-range well last season.
From 3-10 feet, Vucevic knocked down 44.8 percent, and he was 47.1 percent from 10-16 feet.
These figures are the best on Orlando’s roster, so it really become a matter of how to get Vucevic the ball in positions to score. The ultimate manner of doing that thus far has been the pick and roll, but he cannot be that reliant on two-player sets.
Vucevic needs to get in the post, and the Magic’s perimeter players need to feed it to him. Often last season when Vucevic was not getting the ball dumped into him, he became disinterested and his entire level of play fell off.
Part of this falls on coaching: Scott Skiles will need to make sure the guards understand Vucevic is a key to Orlando’s attack. He is great with the ball in his hands, but the next step for Vucevic is to learn to more effectively without it and then to flat out demand the ball when he’s open.
It is not that Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo are greedy with the rock, it is just Vucevic has not pressed the issue. Maybe Skiles does it for him. But at some point Vucevic is going to have to be assertive with his teammates and demand the basketball. Simple.
Oladipo and Vucevic work in tandem as well as any two players on the Magic, and Oladipo’s playmaking abilities have everything to do with it. When Vucevic runs the pick and roll with Oladipo, his hands stay ready because he expects the ball back.
That is actually a missed facet for some NBA bigs who roll to the bucket but are not even ready to catch the passes that inevitably do come back.
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In this clip, you can see Vucevic’s attention remains on Oladipo as soon as he spins his shoulder, and the result is that he is ready for the crafty little flip pass that finds him as he comes down the paint for an easy dunk.
Teams respect Oladipo’s ability to score enough that it is going to give Vucevic consistent opportunities for easy buckets in these situations.
Oladipo enhanced Vucevic. Vucevic hit 54.4 percent of his looks off Oladipo feeds, a figure not even close to matched by any of Orlando’s other rotation players.
Comparatively, Vucevic was just 43 percent with Payton feeding him the basketball. Part of that can be attributed to how erratic Orlando’s offense was last year (which left Payton even more stranded at times), but it was often a thing of beauty to watch Vucevic and Oladipo in the half-court game.
Another clip shows Vucevic can still get right to the basket when he sets the often very high pick and roll. Teams were able to keep the Magic from getting deep into offensive sets, but Vucevic’s shooting ability had to be respected by opposing teams.
The result was often counter-intuitive: when the Magic were forced away from the basket the court opened up and often created better shots.
It is worth taking survey of, as seen in these pick and roll sets (videos c/o Evan Dunlap of Orlando Pinstriped Post):
The first of the plays, Vucevic floods down the center of the paint to take advantage of the attention being paid to Oladipo. He finds himself with plenty of space — and an easy layup. This was after setting the pick and roll from the 3-point line extended. The extra space gave Robin Lopez the bright idea of trying to guard the rim rather than Vucevic. It did not work out well for him.
In the second, the defense reacts by sticking to Vucevic (reactionary) and consequently Oladipo is able to dance in for an acrobatic finish.
No matter how the defense reacts to a pick and roll, there is that split second of disadvantage as players switch men or attempt to fight over/under the pick to stick to their man.
There is a reason why NBA clubs make it the most featured play: it is simple and it is effective.
Pippen Ain't Easy
Teams covet pick and roll defenders. It is the bread and butter of NBA basketball and Oladipo/Vucevic are developing great chemistry using it. Accordingly, when the Magic need buckets, expect Skiles to turn to this tandem in pick and rolls.
It is either that or live with Tobias Harris isolation, and it is usually preferable to involve more than one key player in a play. Problem solved.
As to how this all relates to Vucevic’s stats, Vucevic is reliant on Skiles recognizing he is a pick and roll center. He can improve his post ups, and his mid-range shooting is already very good. But when Vucevic is most devastating is those times when he is working well with the Orlando guards, particularly Oladipo.
If Oladipo and Vucevic get in just a few more pick and rolls per game, his scoring figures rise to that coveted 20-plus mark. He barely missed it last season.
Opposing coaches, fans, and analysts have all taken note Vucevic is an All-Star-caliber talent, now he just needs to start demanding the ball like one.
And so we are right back to where we started: Vucevic’s remaining improvements are mental, a matter of assertiveness.
We will assume he steps up looking for the ball this year more, and that a continued progression occurs. He is now increased his scoring average from 13.1 points per game his first full season in Orlando to 19.3. Let’s call this 21 points per game for Vucevic in 2015-16 as he makes his first career All-Star appearance.
It is a feel-good notion based on what we hope is more touches for the 7-footer this season. His percentages likely stay about the same, because Vucevic is not one to force looks. Sometimes it renders other players taking bad shots because time has been wasted, but Vucevic’s efficiency measures will remain good: 52-54 percent shooting and a 75 percent clip from the line.
Next: Chairman of the Boards
Nikola Vucevic ranked No. 6 in the NBA in rebounds per game last season with 10.9 per game. He was one of just nine players to average double-figure boards last year. But it was actually a down year for Vucevic on the glass, and Orlando was not a good rebounding team, averaging 1.7 rebounds per game less than its opponents.
Vucevic had 45 games with 10 rebounds or more, and he had 45 double-doubles. Vucevic grabbed 69.6 percent of his rebounding chances, but he was good for just 39.3 percent of contested boards, a figure that lurks behind the top rebounders in the league considerably. By comparison, DeAndre Jordan was good for 44 percent of contested boards while man-child Andre Drummond snagged an outstanding 49 percent.
Now, it must be realized on a very real level Vucevic is not the physical specimen Jordan and Drummond are, but this is also not a facet of basketball as reliant on athleticism as many think. Vucevic can raise that figure with better footwork, tougher play, and a meaner streak — flat out, and as simple as it sounds.
Omer Asik grabs 45 percent of contested boards and is more flat footed than Vucevic even. A lot of it is just putting his mind to being the type of rebounder he has been while at his best.
Vucevic averaged a full board better per game in his first season in Orlando, but as he has become more featured in the offense, he has relaxed his effort on the glass. It is somewhat easy to understand, but nevertheless equally as disconcerting.
If the Magic up Vucevic’s workload offensively, does he turn into Brook Lopez?
That might be pure hyperbole, but the point is Vucevic needs to increase his efforts on the glass while also being more active in trying to get the ball. On some level that will affect his offensive rebounding, but a well-conditioned Vucevic could be an absolute monster.
The Vucevic we want to see is the one in the video here against the Miami Heat in Dec. of 2012 — that guy who can average 15 boards per game because he is hungry and active.
As for expectations, we are going to assume Vucevic stays about the same on the glass and that he gets more help this year from teammates. Just because Vucevic can grab the board does not mean he should have to. Oladipo and Harris are both capable of getting another full board per game.
Combine their increased figures with a consistent and steady Vucevic and the Magic are a passable team on the glass. Get Vucevic hitting the glass as he did against the Heat in that game, and at other times, and the Magic are a very good rebounding team. Rebounding, much like defense, is very effort reliant.
Next: Dishes, but dimes?
Vucevic’s Passing
According to NBA.com, Nikola Vucevic had 4.6 assist opportunities per game but he created only 2.1 points per game by assist. So often Vucevic’s passes went unrewarded last season.
The Magic shooters blowing potential assists had to have been frustrating to Vucevic, not just because it impacted his numbers — but because when you set a guy up for a shot, you want him to knock it down.
It kind of helps with that whole “winning” notion.
A healthy Evan Fournier, rookie Mario Hezonja and free agent signee C.J. Watson all will go a long way toward making sure Vucevic is more rewarded for his passing out of double teams.
Fournier actually did make teams pay when Vucevic hit him on the perimeter: Fournier shot 51.3 percent off Vucevic feeds and was good for 42 percent of his threes off Vucevic’s looks.
Obviously the Magic cannot expect those figures from all their shooters, but the proof is there Vucevic was creating good looks for his teammates.
Will his assist figures improve?
It is likely. And it will be due to players making shots.
Vucevic has already been passing the ball very well and not forcing much of anything. Eventually, that is rewarded. He has averaged 2.1 assists per game the last two seasons, but this year we are optimistically going to project that figure to 2.5.
It is a healthy improvement to be sure, but it really just requires the Magic knocking down shots and Vucevic being himself.
Next: The Big Picture
The Big Picture
Many might feel these projections skirt the real issues with Vucevic, most of which lie in his defensive abilities. That is a fair assumption, because this is really about projecting offensive numbers (and board work).
Our overall line works out to 21 points per game, 11 rebounds and 2.5 assists.
Say it loud: “All Star!”
The Magic making a leap to playoff contention would all but assure Vucevic and his teammates start getting the respect they all crave. This is a team that is better than 25 wins, but a lot of the improvement is going to come on the heels of players playing smarter ball.
Smarter ball means getting it to a guy that can put it in the bucket. With Vucevic having established himself as a threat both at the basket and stepping away from it, there’s no reason the Magic can’t turn him into a premier offensive center.
Manu Ginobili was quick to credit him as “one of the best big men in the NBA.”
And it is not just Ginobili or even Erik Spoelstra giving Vucevic props that has us so ready to call him that 21/11 player. It is his past performance.
Vucevic has continued to get better each year in the NBA, and it is doubtful he has truly reached his ceiling, at least numerically.
His play may not substantially change over the rest of his NBA career, but his role can.
The Magic can make sure to get him the ball, involve him in the offense and to maximize a very versatile skill set complete with soft touch.
It is certainly not too much to ask from a well-coached team of young players.