The Tobias Harris free agency pitch is coming. It has already begun to hit the Web ahead of his July 1 free agency. The argument to get paid is a good one.
Tobias Harris officially becomes a free agent July 1. Before then, the Magic will surely tender a qualifying offer to retain his rights as a restricted free agent, maintaining the right to match any offer he receives.
This has been the big storyline almost all season as the Magic prepare for their summer. What is Tobias Harris worth and what will he get in free agency? Everyone is expecting something in the $13-$15 million per year range depending on how the market goes. And the increased salary cap expected for the next few years could see all free agent salaries begin to skyrocket.
Harris is going to get his and the Magic will have a decision on whether to match. And while a range seems to be set, it still remains unclear where the Magic will match and how much they are willing to pay.
Harris obviously has the goal in maximizing his value and getting as much money as he can. He and his agent, Eric Fleisher, and his management team, appear ready to go to bat. Or at least someone is doing that.
Orlando Magic Daily received a tweet from an infographic designer that was apparently sent to other Orlando media, including Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel and Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders, extolling Tobias Harris’ value and pumping up his potential value in free agency.
The full infographic is below:
As Schmitz notes, the company that put this infographic out, NowSourcing, is an infographic design agency. They create charts like the one above and infographics describing the technological advancements at the World Cup, the top-10 pay-per-view fights ahead of the Floyd Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao fight.
The Sixer Sense
In other words, it appears likely someone hired this firm to design something easily digestible to the media to start pumping up Tobias Harris’ value before free agency. The Magic certainly did not do that as they would like to keep his value as low as reasonably possible to get another bargain in free agency.
Orlando Magic Daily reached out to a member of NowSourcing’s team. The source said NowSourcing was looking to break into the sports market and saw the analytical argument with Harris as an opportunity to do so.
No one would confirm whether Harris or any of his representatives hired NowSourcing to create the infographic.
Regardless of how it came about, the infographic is instructive of something. It shows some of the potential strategy and potential marketing for Harris as he enters this important step of free agency. He has to sell himself as a potential max-value guy as much as teams have to want him as part of their team.
And to some extent, his representatives have to show other teams Harris is a high-quality player. That is where one might think someone planted the idea for an infographic like the one above to show to media to drum up support for drafting Harris or to give information in easily digestible form to general managers and decisionmakers.
The infographic seems to make the marketing plan for Harris.
Next: The Paradigm Shift
The Paradigm Shift
The whole crux of the argument used in the infographic is that Tobias Harris is a perfect fit for the current NBA. He is a versatile forward capable of playing both forward positions, certainly on the offensive end. And the fact no one is talking about him is something the statistics and numbers say should not be happening.
So, he should have a strong market.
Certainly calling him the most underrated free agent in the NBA is trying to pump up conversation. Harris seems behind Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler and even Tristan Thompson in the free agent pecking order as a power forward.
However, it seems pretty certain that Harris is the kind of power forward that is becoming vogue in the NBA at the moment. It is positional versatility that seems to be most important.
Most of Orlando’s 2015 season was spent trying to figure out exactly where Harris belongs in the grand scheme of things. And that never seemed to materialize clearly.
Harris spent most of 2015 at small forward but he played most of 2014 at power forward. The Magic just drafted Aaron Gordon who has much the same positional versatility to play both forward spots. It is undoubtedly something the NBA values.
That means Harris has to do everything both a small forward and a power forward must do.
As the infographic points out, Harris was in some solid statistical company. He was one of four players in the league to average at least 17 points per game, six rebounds per game and shoot 35 percent from beyond the arc.
Scoring was always something Harris could do, but his rebounding and shooting was a different matter. Harris’ rebounding actually took something of a dip in 2015 as he moved more to small forward. His defensive rebound rate dropped from 20.6 percent to 17.3 percent. He spent all his previous times in Orlando with a defensive rebound rate around 20 percent.
Certainly bringing in Dewayne Dedmon to gobble up more rebounds limited what he could do on the boards. There are only so many rebounds to go around. And being out of the power forward position, probably moved him away from the basket.
The other area where Harris continues to improve is his 3-point shooting. He went from 25.4 percent from beyond the arc in 2014 and 32.1 percent in his career to 36.4 percent in 2015. That is a drastic improvement.
And Harris seemed to get most of it from the most efficient areas. Harris was 46 for 103 (44.7 percent) on corner 3-pointers including an efficient 26 for 50 from the right corner.
Harris still has a lot of work to do though. Particularly with his shooting. He shot less than 40 percent on open jumpers. Even then, as the infographic notes, very few of Harris’ shots were open ones. A signal of the struggles for the Magic’s offense.
He put up the raw numbers to justify an investment from someone. There seems to be no doubt of that. And at 23, there is no reason to think he will not continue his improvement. He is not a finished product.
For a team like the Magic, it comes down to the dollars and cents.
Next: The Defense Issue
The Defense Issue
So how do you explain Harris’ biggest remaining weakness? His defense.
Draymond Green is probably about to get a max contract, and it will not be for his impact on the offensive end.
Harris is almost certainly a better offensive player than Green at this point. They should be comparable players. But he does not make nearly the impact on the defensive end and he does not work nearly as well without the ball. That is where Harris stands to improve the most.
How do you market a bad defender when it has become so important to the way the league operates and the way a similar player is going to get paid in a major way?
The infographic suggests Harris is good at preventing shots are the rim. It says Harris gives up 5.2 shots at the rim per 48 minutes compared to Draymond Green giving up 8.5. It says “Tobias’ offensive opponents average less points at the rim even without the presence of a rim protecting center.”
The numbers though may tell a different story. According to NBA.com, Harris gave up 64.8 percent shooting on shots less than six feet. Opponents shot 54.0 percent at the rim against Harris.
The comparison that is being made here is a bit misleading. Harris played mostly on the perimeter this past season and so defending at the rim was not his particular forte.
Defense is still an area where he needs to improve. There may be no way to explain this away when it comes to Harris.
However, there were positive moments. Harris’ defense, at least to the eye, seemed to get better. Then-coach Jacque Vaughn put a lot of faith in Harris by matching him minute-for-minute against LeBron James in a Dec. 26 game against the Cavaliers. Harris only made the mistake of prodding James too much and getting in his face or he would have had a pretty strong defensive outing against him.
Those singular anecdotes help his case and show potential. Ultimately, because the Magic are so bad defensively, Harris has to continue to prove himself and sell this potential.
Next: What is the right price?
What is the right price?
This has been the $12 million question. Or $13 million. Or $15 million.
Nobody seems to know how much money he should get this summer. The increasing salary cap that will come starting next summer certainly will play a role. Teams might be willing to spend a little more, knowing the cap hit will become less impactful over time.
The infographic tries to compare Harris to Gordon Hayward, Chandler Parsons, Draymond Green and DeMarre Carroll by PER. Green and Carroll are both competitor free agents. Green likely will get the max offer sheet while Carroll seems to be a bit more of a role player, but had a bigger stage with the Hawks than Harris. Carroll will likely get a contract slightly less than Harris’ but still north of $10 million per year, it would seem.
The recent free agencies of Hayward and Parsons might serve a better example.
First, Harris posted a 16.7 PER this year, about his career average. Hayward posted a 16.5 PER and Chandler Parsons a 15.3. Of course, most people know PER is an imperfect stat and many disregard it completely.
Where Hayward and Parsons separate themselves is with their 3-point shooting. As noted, Harris is an improving 3-point shooter, but not a great one yet. Parsons shot 37.3 percent and Hayward 36.5 percent last year, both at least four percentage points better than Harris’ career average (eds. note: thanks to a reader for pointing this out, Harris shot 36.4 percent from beyond the arc, which is comparable to Parsons and Hayward last year, however his career numbers are much lower than both Hayward and Parsons. Harris is still proving himself). That is a big mark — the difference between respect and a guy you can sag off of.
Hayward is also a borderline all star, producing what Harris produces at a much more efficient clip.
Either way, it seems these are two players you could try to compare Harris’ value to.
In July of last year, Hayward was offered a max offer sheet from the Charlotte Hornets which the Jazz matched. It was reportedly a four-year deal for nearly $73 million (starting at about $14.75 million kicking in this season). Parsons signed a three-year deal worth a little more than $46 million (starting at $14.7 million).
If this is indeed who Harris wants to compare himself to, it seems reasonable to offer him something along those lines, especially with the cap increasing. Anyone imagining Harris would get what the Magic reportedly offered him in the summer or even what Nikola Vucevic got in the summer.
He will get a contract offer likely starting at that $14 million per year mark. There seems to be no avoiding this, especially with teams seemingly willing to commit long-term money with the cap getting set to increase.
Next: The Final Pitch
The Final Pitch
It is clear though, Harris is going to get his money. And a lot of it will be based on what the market bears and what he could potentially become.
He is only 22 years old after all and a really good locker room guy and basketball citizen — he was a finalist for the J. Walter Kennedy Citizenship Award. He should continue to get better.
The pitch seems clear what Harris and his camp will try to emphasize. This is a gifted offensive player that has put up good numbers on a bad team. And he is ready to break out even more.
They are clearly ready to sell the future. Harris’ present is great, but his future could be even greater.
Sure, there are still some warts to cover up. The pitch will do that too, trying to find ways to explain away his defensive shortcomings.
Undoubtedly, Harris will have suitors. They will be willing to give him a lot of money. The Magic seem content to sit and watch what other teams offer and then make their decision on what to match. Orlando holds that card with Harris’ restricted free agency.
It will be a tough choice, and there remain competing interests. Harris wants to make his money — and he absolutely should make the most he can.
Or, of course, Harris could take the qualifying offer and try his luck to make even more money during the summer of 2016 when the cap really begins its hike upward. The Magic might certainly prefer Harris on a two-year deal at a big number to see if he can fulfill that role or let him walk when the money gets too rich.
The game begins July 1.