NBA Draft quandaries: If the Orlando Magic decide to go with a shooting guard, it has to be determined who fits better between Justise Winslow and Mario Hezonja.
We have already looked at both Justise Winslow and Mario Hezonja in fairly descriptive reports here at Orlando Magic Daily. What we have not done is determine which would be the better fit for Orlando’s backcourt.
Justice Winslow has received the love from the fans, and he was an NCAA tournament darling, but does he really outclass Mario Hezonja?
Hezonja is said to be the best Croatian since Drazen Petrovic — and that high billing from international scouts must be taken seriously.
If Hezonja develops into a Petrovic-like guard, he is the easy pick. The fact his skill set appears to be so similar can only be seen as confirmations of his potential brilliance. And at this point, Winslow and Hezonja are both players whose full potential has yet to be realized.
So, in building a case for these prospects, we must consider the following:
- Ability to play multiple positions
- Overall Shooting Prowess
- Defensive capabilities
- Adaptability
Next: Who is more multi-positional?
Ability to play multiple positions
Mario Hezonja is 6-foot-7 while Justise Winslow is 6-foot-6. While Winslow may be more endowed with length (how much is unclear since Hezonja did not take part in the Combine measurements), it is Hezonja who has already demonstrated the ability to cover both wing positions, albeit in Europe.
Winslow is at best questionable as a 3-man, while Hezonja immediately receiving billing as a guy who can thrive at the 2 or 3 spot. That said, is either limited to just one position? Winslow is arguably more relegated to the shooting guard position.
Advantage: Hezonja
Next: Shooting Ability
Overall shooting prowess
Hezonja comes billed a a lights-out shooter with unquestionably the range to hit the NBA three. Justise Winslow’s jumper improved as the NCAA season progressed, but the 39 percent mark he displayed was misleading. Winslow attempted mostly shots right at the college line, whereas Hezonja teed up from far beyond the arc with regularity.
At worst, it can be said Hezonja simply has betting shooting range. At best, he is coming off screens like Petrovic and nailing triples. Hezonja has the athleticism that is required for defenses to respect his jumper.
Advantage: Hezonja
Next: Defense! Defense!
Defensive Capabilities
This is where Justise has the supreme advantage, and potentially what makes him more attractive to both general manager Rob Hennigan and coach Scott Skiles.
Winslow has the potential to be one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. Pairing him with Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo could prove devastating to opponents.
Hezonja, to be clear, is not a poor defender. But it is also not his calling card, as it is with Winslow.
It may become a matter of whether the Magic want to go with the best offensive player (Hezonja) or a guaranteed stopper in Winslow.
Given that some expect Winslow to become a No. 1 option offensively, the matter may be heavily reliant upon immediate impact.
If that had been a category, Hezonja would take it: he is ready for the Association. Winslow will likely be the better player in three seasons, but Magic fans would prefer Hezonja’s immediate impact.
Winslow could be a top-tier defender from the beginning, but is that enough to pass on Hezonja’s offensive skills?
Advantage: Winslow
Next: Which player would transition to the NBA better?
Adaptability
This mostly is an evaluation of how each player would adapt to Orlando, and further, how well their respective games will translate to the next level.
For Winslow, the matter will simply be integrating himself with an NBA offense and finding ways to exploit his immense athleticism.
Hezonja is a creator, but others often create Hezonja’s shots. He is not really an opportunist, but his game will be more heavily dependent upon half-court brilliance.
Winslow will run and fill passing lanes, if he is not leading the transition brigade with the ball in his hands. The fact he is a domestic NCAA product bodes well, too.
It is much easier to imagine Winslow fitting into Scott Skiles schemes, especially after he learns NBA help-side defense.
Advantage: Winslow
Next: So, who is it?
And so, here we sit: 2-2 tie. So, which player is the better pick?
At this point, it is hard to argue against Winslow given he fits Skiles’ identity.
But Hezonja can by no means be discounted. His shooting ability is sorely needed, perhaps more so than Winslow’s defense. Besides that, Hezonja has the athleticism to become at least a plus-defender.
All things considered, Winslow is the safer pick to many. But playing it safe is scarcely a way to win titles. And, if Hennigan goes with either Kristaps Porzingis or Hezonja, it should be no reason for fans to despair.
The superficial glance at these categories reveals it is a close contest for which prospect goes No. 5 overall, and this is just for the matter of selecting a swing man.
If the Magic want to go offensive, it is Hezonja. If Orlando feels its defense is lacking the necessary artillery on the perimeter, it is Winslow.
All said, Winslow fits Skiles’ approach better (though Willie Cauley-Stein deserves his placeholder).
Advantage: Winslow—but it is really darn close.