The Magic have had mixed success with its last six lottery picks, but current general manager Rob Hennigan has received all passing grades thus far.
The Orlando Magic have had six lottery picks since 2004, that first of which yielded a franchise player in Dwight Howard. But by no means do lottery picks guarantee that type of success, and of the Magic’s past six lottery picks, the team has had a mixed bag.
The jury is still out on its most recent picks, though the progress of Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo has certainly been promising.
This year the Magic will selected no lower than eighth, but are hoping to snag a top-two pick with an 18.5 percent chance of that happening.
Orlando has not been fortunate in recent years, with last year’s disappointment seeing the Magic selected No. 4 overall, missing out on the two surefire prospects in the draft (Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker).
Again this year, the Magic will pray to obtain the top-two pick necessary to draft either Jahlil Okafor or Karl-Anthony Towns.
But how have the Magic fared in its past six lottery picks?
Next: #4 overall in 2014
2014
Aaron Gordon, No. 4 overall, Grade: C –
Aaron Gordon experienced a season of great highs and frequent lows. He was guilty of the classic rookie mistakes and for the amazing ball-snatching blocks he performed, he also had stretches where he was nothing but a liability on both ends of the court.
Gordon will need to hone his jump shot more so that he can occupy the small forward spot with greater ease, while his athleticism should enable him to cover most NBA power forwards.
Aaron has a long way to go, and the five votes he received for the All-Rookie team are largely a product of some having seen the best Gordon has to offer.
On a potential-basis alone, he still could be the best forward that was available to Orlando at that slot in the draft, but missing out on Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins was a major set back.
Next: #10 overall, 2014
2014: Elfrid Payton, No. 10 overall, Grade: A
Elfrid Payton could eventually be the third best talent in the 2014 class. At this point, only Marcus Smart and Dante Exum can even challenge him as the best point guard.
Payton lacks a jumper of any sort, but that is oft proven one of the areas players can substantially improve on the basis of hard work alone.
Payton has drawn comparisons to Rajon Rondo, but at this point he may be far better than Rondo ever has been — certainly he is better than Rondo was as a rookie.
He is just as adept with his ball fakes, and he led the NBA in assists per game during the final month of the season.
Payton made the First Team All-Rookie, and he has the passing talents to lead the NBA in assists for a full season. The fact he will have an outside chance at doing it as early as next year is fully indicative of how great he may one day be.
Next: #2 overall, 2013
2013: Victor Oladipo No. 2 overall, B+
This No. 2 overall pick really came in the wrong year to have a high pick. There were no clear-cut prospects in what many considered one of the weakest drafts in decades.
The eventual Rookie of the Year, Michael Carter-Williams, was taken with the No. 10 overall pick, and then traded a year later. The No. 1 overall pick Anthony Bennett has scarcely made much of an impact in the pros, and the best long-term prospect of the entire class may have come at No. 15 overall Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Orlando selected Oladipo with that No. 2 overall pick, and at this point he could reasonably be considered the third- or fourth-best player in the class.
Nerlens Noel, Michael Carter-Williams and Giannis Antetokounmpo have all exhibited enough value that cases can be made for all being more valuable than Oladipo.
If Oladipo learns to establish better contact on his drives, the potential for his scoring to increase dramatically is there. He has immense athleticism and elite defensive abilities, but he’s arguably not even the second-best in his draft class.
That said, the Magic did get a guy who could make some All-Star teams, and thus far he’s done well with being Orlando’s primary backcourt scorer.
Next: #11 overall, 2006
2006: J.J. Redick No. 11 overall, Grade: B
J.J. Redick took a while to pay dividends for the Magic. Defensively he struggled immensely in his first few NBA seasons as Brian Hill buried him on the bench and then Stan Van Gundy continued to work with the Duke product to make him tougher, more aware and smarter on the defensive end of the court.
Redick responded and grew. He became a legitimate starting 2-guard and marksman that would be valued by contending teams in what is now his prime.
He started for the Los Angeles Clippers who just lost in the Western Conference Semis to the Houston Rockets in Game Seven.
Redick shot the ball well in the postseason but cooled when the Clippers needed him to step up. During the final three games of the series, Redick hit just 6 of 26 from the field after he had been on fire prior to that.
The entire Clippers team melted down in those final three games of the series, blowing the 3-1 lead they established. Redick still is a great payout with a late lottery pick as a guy who has become more than a shooter as he was originally billed coming out of the NCAA.
Next: #11 overall, 2005
2005: Fran Vazquez No. 11 overall, Grade: F
This is one of the greatest travesties of Magic lottery picks. The entire time leading to the 11th pick, I sat yelling and pleading that no team select swingman Danny Granger of New Mexico. He lasted to the No. 11 pick and the Magic proceeded to take Fran Vazquez, a guy most have never heard of because he never in fact made it over to the NBA to begin with.
First it was contractual issues, but it gradually became apparent Vazquez simply had no intention of leaving Europe. His girlfriend at one point was said to be a reason why, but it does not really matter.
Granger continued to fall all the way to Indiana at No. 17 overall and, of course, went on to be an All-Star and big scorer before suffering a knee injury that has now reduced him to a fringe reserve.
While Granger may have declined early, he offered a great run of production that would have pretty easily trumped what Orlando got from Vasquez. Namely, nothing.
Next: #1 overall, 2004
2004: Dwight Howard No. 1 overall, A+
This pick was actually not a consensus and obvious choice. There were divisive camps on whether the Magic should use this pick to select a player whose upside was immeasurable in Dwight Howard or a proven NCAA champion and defensive stalwart in Emeka Okafor.
Count this one that I got wrong.
At the time, it seemed that if the Magic could draft Okafor and convince Tracy McGrady to stay, that they could leapfrog themselves back into contention quickly with some good signings. Okafor, many reasoned, was by far the more NBA-ready prospect, and that notion was certainly confirmed when Okafor proceeded to win the Rookie of the Year award.
However, even at that point, there was no deluding oneself that Howard would not be the better player in a short time. Howard proceeded to become the 20/20 beast he was in Orlando while Okafor simply never really improved all that much.
Okafor remained a middling offensive talent his entire career, and other than some decent shot blocking he was never the dominant defensive force the Charlotte Bobcats had hoped he would become in time when they traded up for the second pick. It was easy to bill Okafor as a more offensively gifted Ben Wallace, but it certainly never came anywhere near being true.
Howard, meanwhile, won three Defensive Player of the Year awards, appeared in the Finals in 2009, and could find his way into the 2015 Finals if his Rockets manage to upset the Golden State Warriors.