Looking for a star in the NBA Draft? Where you pick historically seems to matter. And where stars come from in the Draft is quite unpredictable.
The NBA Draft Lottery has put a wrench in predicting or talking about the Draft for now. Yes, the list of players officially entered into the Draft is complete and released. Teams will get their first chances to really interview and get to know the players in the coming weeks — most starting at the NBA Draft Combine on May 12.
Believe it or not, the Magic have the best odds of ending up with the sixth pick in the Draft rather than the fifth pick, where they would end up without a lottery system.
A good chunk of the Magic’s rebuild has been focused on the Draft. No one is hiding from that fact. The first two years were meant to be hard so the Magic could restock their talent pool with young players that could develop into potential stars and grow with the franchise.
The hope was that the Magic would build their core this way, rather than having to overpay for an uncertain “star” or trade for some disgruntled star and try to convince him to stay and be their leader. This is a deliberate rebuild.
Orlando will continue to put an emphasis on the Draft, which puts the team at the whims of those ping pong balls.
The numbers really show what a crapshoot that can be.
Josh Cohen of OrlandoMagic.com took a look at the percentage of All Stars to come from each pick 1-8 (where the Magic can pick this season) in since 1980. He discovered that really the top pick is the only one that guarantees an All Star (77 percent turn into All Stars). The percentages drop dramatically from there.
And so, it becomes clear where you are picking really matters in finding a consistent talent. There are always diamonds in the rough, but the odds are that a team 1-8 will get a solid, but not franchise-changing player. Those become rarer and rarer the deeper you go into the Draft.
This is about managing expectations. And each pick frankly should come with its own.
Next: The top pick brings the greatest guarantee
Top pick is almost a guarantee
Last Magic No. 1 Pick: Dwight Howard (2004) — .178 WS/48
2014 No. 1 Pick: Andrew Wiggins — 0.034 WS/48
Last No. 1 Pick All Star: Anthony Davis (2012) — .220 WS/48
2015 Odds for Magic: 8.8%
The top pick brings the greatest chance of securing an All Star and a franchise-changing player. Having the pick of the litter should give any team that advantage.
Nearly three in four top overall picks pan out into solid players and All-Star players. Andrew Wiggins, the top overall pick in 2014, was the 2015 Rookie of the Year and everyone sees the star potential in the young Wolves forward.
Winning the lottery is just that, winning the lottery. It is the biggest prize given out in the NBA.
The top overall pick has won the Rookie of the Year Award four times since 2004. The names are obvious — Blake Griffin, LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and, now, Andrew Wiggins.
Even if they do not win the award, they tend to turn into solid players the following year. And 27 of the past 35 top overall picks have become NBA All Stars. The weight of stardom can be tough for a rookie to carry so early on.
But eventually they tend to find a way to carry that burden. More often than not, this is where you most likely find your lifetime-changing star. The other picks, have a much lower hit rate.
Next: Sloppy Seconds
Sloppy seconds
Last Magic No. 2 Pick: Victor Oladipo (2013) — 0.046 WS/48
2014 No. 2 Pick: Jabari Parker — 0.088 WS/48
Last No. 2 Pick All Star: Kevin Durant (2007) — 0.207 WS/48
2015 Odds for Magic: 9.66%
The second pick in the Draft is usually the “other guy” the top overall team did not pick. Think the difficult decision Cleveland had last year between Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker. Or, if you can remember, the tough choice between Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley. Yes, that was a difficult choice.
And it is amazing how often that difficult choice turns into a disaster like Beasley did for the Heat.
Since the last No. 2 pick All Star was drafted, the second pick has seen Hasheem Thabeet taken over Stephen Curry and James Harden (this year’s two MVP frontrunners), Evan Turner was taken over DeMarcus Cousins, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was taken over Damian Lillard and Bradley Beal.
So far Oladipo has looked like a solid pick with the second overall pick. He might be the best player from the 2013 Draft, if not the second best depending on what Nerlens Noel does and becomes.
Maybe some of it is a player being disappointed with not being the top pick in the Draft. Yet, the second pick in the draft continues to be one of the biggest crapshoots of the Draft. And really he should not be.
Jabari Parker tore his ACL this year, but was having a solid rookie season, making for a second straight solid second overall selection after Oladipo.
This year seems to be another two-player draft with Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns as consensus top two guys. Each has their flaws and strengths. It will be interesting to see what happens with who ends up No. 2.
Next: The Jordan Pick
The Michael Jordan Pick
Last Magic No. 3 Pick: Anfernee Hardaway (1993) — 0.125 WS/48
2014 No. 3 Pick: Joel Embiid — 0.000 WS/48
Last No. 3 Pick All Star: James Harden (2009) — 0.207 WS/48
2015 Odds for Magic: 10.68%
The third pick in the Draft is always going to be associated with Michael Jordan. Just like the Portland Trail Blazers lost the coin flip for Hakeem Olajuwon, they both got stuck with the sloppy seconds of Sam Bowie and passed over taking Jordan, the most transformative player in the league’s history.
Amazingly, since 1980 there have been more All Stars drafted third overall than second overall (17-12). So it seems like being the third pick is often better than being better than the second pick. If it is a two-player draft, it is like being the top pick all over again.
That was not the case last year, but it might be the case again this year with the third pick having their pick of the “second-tier” guys.
There are some very good players historically still available at three and so landing here is not the worst thing in the world. It, arguably with the history of the pick, can be better than landing second — Darko Milicic anyone?
Next: Fifth as Expected
Fifth As Expected
Last Magic No. 5 Pick: Mike Miller (2000) — 0.106 WS/48
2014 No. 5 Pick: Dante Exum — -0.003 WS/48
Last No. 5 Pick All Star: DeMarcus Cousins (2010) — 0.104 WS/48
2015 Odds for Magic: 26.15%
Why did I skip the fourth pick? The Magic cannot get the fourth pick in this year’s Draft, so no need to comment on its historical significance.
However, outside the Lottery, the Magic have a 1-in-4 chance at landing at their expected fifth slot. And now things get a little more interesting. There is no guarantee at the fifth pick that you will get a very useful player. For every DeMarcus Cousins and solid contributor in Jonas Valanciunas, there is a Thomas Robinson and Alex Len. Maybe the jury is not deliberating yet on Len.
The point being, the fifth pick has seen its struggles.
But it has seen some great picks too — Vince Carter, Scottie Pippen, Ray Allen. It is not likely you are going to get a superstar player, but you never know what you can find.
If the Magic can get a player like Mike Miller, the Rookie of the Year in 2001, at this spot, it would be a successful Draft. He was never a star, but was a solid role player and supporting player for the Magic in his younger days.
The Magic are likely going to be picking here or on the next slide at No. 6 — deciding between whatever is left between Mario Hezonja, D’Angelo Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay and Justise Winslow. As might be the case with previous picks historically, getting left with a player can be a bad thing.
Next: The Likely Spot
The Likely Spot
Last Magic No. 6 Pick: None
2014 No. 6 Pick: Marcus Smart — 0.077 WS/48
Last No. 6 Pick All Star: Damian Lillard (2012) — 0.138 WS/48
2015 Odds for Magic: 35.99%
The Magic actually have the best odds to land the sixth pick in this year’s Draft rather than fifth. It is more likely that at least one team will jump into the Top 3 and push the Magic down a spot.
That could be fine though. But the percentages really begin to drop when you leave the top five. Eleven fifth overall picks became All Stars in the last 30 years, just seven sixth overall picks have.
By the time you reach this part of the Draft, you are starting to thin out the top-tier talents and are just hoping for a fine role player. Role players are good. But the farther you fall in the Draft, the thinner the talent crop gets. You just hope you have someone that can get through his rookie contract as a contributor.
You will see a lot more risks at the No. 6 pick — this is where the injured Nerlens Noel was picked, where the potential-filled Jan Veseley and Ekpe Udoh. You find some horrific misses as well as the big hits — Noel and Smart possibly being one and Lillard definitely being a big smash for the Trail Blazers.
As expected, the talent starts to fall off and at around the fifth or sixth pick, it does not seem like you are looking for a star as much as just hoping for a player who can develop and contribute meaningfully. This is the point of the Draft where drafting on need might start to make more sense because the best player available may be a real project.
Next: Diamonds are tougher to find
Diamonds are Tougher to Find
Last Magic No. 7 Pick: None
2014 No. 7 Pick: Julius Randle — -0.276 WS/48
Last No. 7 Pick All Star: Stephen Curry (2009) — 0.177 WS/48
2015 Odds for Magic: 8.36%
There is really little difference in the significance of the sixth and seventh pick. Both have produced just seven All Stars in the last 30 years.
So again, teams are looking for a player to contribute at this point. Yes, the Stephen Currys pop up — thank Minnesota’s pick of Jonny Flynn at at six in 2009 for that — that can happen at any pick though. The odds of finding a star seem to decrease at this point.
So how do you draft for a solid player at this point in the Draft? Do you take best player available? Do you draft for need?
The general rule for the Draft is to draft best player available. The NBA makes it so easy for players to get traded, that problems with having too many of one type of player can be easily remedied. Plus, if you draft the best player, you have as good a chance of trading the pick for something else valuable in the Draft itself.
This is the point in the Draft where you start looking for sure singles and hope you can stretch them into multi-base hits. But getting the single is the most important. Taking a player who could develop into a home run can leave you striking out in the end — and wasting the pick while someone below you takes the Paul George or other All Star.
If the Magic end up falling back further from the fifth pick, then this is where you start picking a bit safer.
Next: The Long Shot
The Long Shot
Last Magic No. 8 Pick: None
2014 No. 8 Pick: Nik Stauskas — 0.021 WS/48
Last No. 8 Pick All Star: Vin Baker (1993) — 0.088 WS/48
2015 Odds for Magic: 0.37%
Only four players drafted eighth have become NBA All-Stars since 1980. Vin Baker is the only one since 1985. Think about that.
If you do not remember, Baker was one of the most versatile power forwards in the league at one point. The Lockout happened in 1999, he gained a lot of weight and was never the same player. While he has recovered in his life now, Baker is a cautionary tale for many young players.
The eighth pick has produced many cautionary tales and very few quality players. Stauskas was largely a disappointment his rookie season (aside from the “Sauce Castillo” fun). Jordan Hill (over DeMar DeRozan), Al-Farou Aminu (over Gordon Hayward), Brandon Knight (a solid pick), Terrence Ross (over Andre Drummond) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (jury is still out) make up the previous five eighth overall selections.
You can see there are a lot of picks based on potential, maybe a few for consistency, but little has panned out.
And so really with this pick, you are more likely getting a decent contributor rather than anyone that can definitely and assuredly help you. Even Drummond was a project at that point.
Next: Conclusion
Conclusion
So, in reviewing all this, the mission becomes clear. As you would expect, the higher you draft, the better chance you have of getting a star. But really the only place you can almost guarantee yourself an All Star is at the top pick. Everything else is a crap shoot.
Maybe that talks to the risk and danger of the Magic’s chosen method of rebuilding.
They hoped to get a star through the Draft, did not win the Lottery and had to make the best of the situation they were put in.
In Victor Oladipo, they appear to have a solid player. In Aaron Gordon, they took a project. There is no guarantee either will be All Stars.
Now slated to draft fifth, and more likely drafting sixth, the Magic are probably not expecting to get an All Star in this year’s Draft. The hope is they will, but they are probably more looking at getting a starter and solid contributor.
Orlando is still building up its cache of young assets. Perhaps that is in a move to make a trade for that solid All Star. Perhaps that is in hopes of finding a coach who can implement a system to take advantage of the group’s talents.
The Draft will make things a little bit clearer for the Magic. But all this is to suggest, the 2015 Draft remains only a piece of the bigger puzzle, not something to bring it into more careful focus.