Opportunity exists for Orlando Magic to stay in Playoff conversation

It is easy to dismiss the Orlando Magic and any talk of the Playoffs. Early projections and looks at the roster suggest they could stay in the conversation.

As the NBA schedule comes out, it is hard not to begin checking through the schedule to think of where the team might find trouble and where the team might find some success. Predicting a record becomes the go-to task for this time of year as everyone waits for training camp.

A team like the Orlando Magic cannot think like that. For a team that has finished with the sixth pick in the NBA Draft each of the last two years and has picked outside of the top 10 just once in the last six years, no game can be depended upon as a win. There are no gimmes for this type of team.

That is not to say Orlando is a tanking team or a team still competing for one of the top picks in the Draft.

The Magic were not that last year and only became that when injuries decimated the team. Orlando was still trying to win games at the end of the season and fell out of a tie for the third-best Lottery odds on the final day of the season to end up with the sixth pick.

That should show how razor thin the margin is between landing one of the top picks in the draft and being just outside the Playoff race. Then again 13 games between the Orlando Magic’s 25 wins and the Washington Wizards’ 43 games seems like a long way.

Especially considering the Magic made so few changes to their roster.

But the Eastern Conference landscape is ever changing. And even by basic measures, the Magic underperformed their actual talent and ability last year. They won 25 games but had the statistical profile of a 28-win team. And if fully healthy this season, that number should surely rise.

It seems like the early predictions for the Magic this season have the team settling in at a little more than 30 wins. That is where Vegas has them.

ESPN’s Summer Forecast series pegged the Magic at 30 wins, 12th in the Eastern Conference and eight games out of the final Playoff spot. FiveThirtyEight projects the Magic with 33 wins, also 12th in the Eastern Conference and eight games out of the final Playoff spot.

As many said last year, the Magic probably have too many quality players to put a full-forced effort to get the top pick. And changing Lottery odds are supposed to keep teams from throwing their lot wholly into that strategy. It is at least possible that the bottom teams will be more accidentally tanking, recognizing where their season is going midway through rather than going for the worst record at the beginning.

But it is also probably clear, as many said last year, Orlando probably does not have enough to get over the top and into the Playoffs. And their lack of activity this summer is not changing many of those thoughts.

Aaron Gordon is still coming into his own as a star. Jonathan Isaac is still a major unknown. The team did not add a whole lot of new offensive weapons to a team that struggled offensively last year. And the point guard position remains a huge question mark, even if D.J. Augustin provides some steady play.

Orlando is still in that weird place of not quite good enough to make the Playoffs but not nearly bad enough for a top pick, even with the improved odds. It is quite possibly the worst place in the league to be.

President of basketball operations Jeff Weltman has taken a patient approach to the rebuild. He decided not to make massive changes for the sake of massive changes and is waiting for his team to come into cap room to spend on the right players. For now, he seems satisfied with the environment he is creating for Jonathan Isaac, Aaron Gordon and Mohamed Bamba to grow.

Do not tell coach Steve Clifford any of that. He has told the media before that he believes the Magic can be the team that surprises everyone to make a Playoff run. And certainly there is a universe where this happens — FiveThirtyEight gives the Magic a 25 percent chance of making the Playoffs, which is probably more than anyone else will give them.

If Gordon takes another leap in his game to become an All-Star, that would certainly raise the team’s ceiling. Isaac staying healthy and taking a large leap in his game offensively would also help the Magic’s cause. Orlando knows what it can count on from Evan Fournier and Nikola Vucevic already.

Lineups that featured Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac and Nikola Vucevic had a 95.9 offensive rating and 87.3 defensive rating in 34 minutes on the floor together last year. Like many of Isaac’s key lineups, the offense took a major hit, but the defense was superb.

This is too small a sample to draw too many conclusions. Especially with how unclear Isaac’s role might be, at least to start the year.

It seems the Magic are going to fall into that tier of teams that could go either way. They clearly have the talent to outperform expectations but things could still go horribly wrong and leave them in the deep Lottery again.

There will be plenty of early season tests against teams in this similar situation.

Teams like the Chicago Bulls, New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons. Some of those teams are better than others for sure. But Orlando would love to be considered within that tier.

The Cavaliers, Hornets and Pistons especially probably believe they will make the Playoffs this year with All-Star players already on the roster. The Knicks, Bulls and Nets are probably more similar to the Magic. All are considered dark horses to make a Playoff run this year.

Orlando Magic

But counting those teams, that is almost the entirety of the Eastern Conference vying for one of those final Playoff spots. If the Toronto Raptors, Philadelphia 76ers, Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks are certain to make it. That leaves just three spots remaining. The Miami Heat and Washington Wizards seem like safe bets to get two of them.

That is not to say there will not be teams that surprise by both overperforming and underperforming.

Orlando might find itself in that tier of teams trying to get that last spot. But everything will have to break right.

And here Orlando will have to prove itself against those other teams vying for a spot too. Those games against the teams like the Knicks, Nets and Bulls, similarly young teams without much star power, could determine both confidence and pecking order in the standings.

The Playoffs may seem like a long shot, but these games especially will differentiate the Magic between competing for that Playoff spot (whether they make it or not) or playing for ping pong balls once again.

As everyone begins to examine the team once again and analyze what might happen, it is clear the Magic can surprise plenty. But everything has to break right. And more likely, the Magic will find themselves fighting for position just outside the Playoff race.