Orlando Magic should keep the same starting five, for now
The Orlando Magic made some big moves in free agency this summer to bolster their depth. But their starting five should remain intact for now.
The Orlando Magic likely completed the major moves for their summer with the signing of Jonathon Simmons on Saturday. It was an acquisition that seemed to come out of nowhere.
At the beginning of the summer, there was some thought the Magic should pursue Jonathon Simmons. But the price tag would seem to be too high. The San Antonio Spurs held his restricted free agency rights and it would take a big offer it would seem to get him.
The Spurs played their summer out and eventually rescinded their qualifying offer to Simmons turning him to an open market that had spent most of its money.
The Magic pounced and signed Simmons, getting a steal in the process.
But Orlando was always going to make cosmetic changes. Outside of a trade, the team was not going to be able to make a huge shift or change to their roster. Not with the cap room the team had.
It seemed very likely the Magic would go into training camp with the same starting lineup as last year. That seemed like a bad scenario for the team. After all, the Magic went 8-16 after the All-Star Break to wrap up a 29-win team.
Despite that poor record, there was a small sense of optimism around the Magic. The team felt it had some thing and that it was playing better as the season came to a close. The Magic likely knew then changes were possible. But there was a growing sense the team could find a way to right the ship, even if just a little.
The Magic’s starting lineup of Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic posted +1.4 points per 100 possessions net rating in 410 minutes after the All-Star Break. The team posted a stellar 112.0 points per 100 possessions offensive rating with that group.
The same thing happened when taking out Nikola Vucevic for Bismack Biyombo. The lineup with Bismack Biyombo posted +1.4 points per 100 possessions net rating and 112.5 points per 100 possessions in 105 minutes.
Those are both very strong offenses. There is no getting around that.
That did not mean there were no problems.
After the All-Star Break, the Magic still had three losses by 30 points or more. Maybe this is a problem of a bad team playing out the string or maybe it is a clue of something worse.
The bench itself was extremely poor too. The Magic had one of the worst benches in the league to end last season. Addin Shelvin Mack and Jonathon Simmons, at the very least, should help with that problem.
Orlando’s overall net rating after the All-Star Break was -7.1 points per 100 possessions. The Magic had a 102.9 offensive rating. That means the bench was somewhere near 20 points per 100 possessions worse than the starters. Adding Shelvin Mack and Jonathon Simmons, at the very least, should help with that problem.
The starting unit also struggled defensively. Both of them. With Vucevic the team gave up 110.6 points per 100 possessions. With Bismack Biyombo the team gave up 111.1 points per 100 possessions.
There is at least some belief among coach Frank Vogel and the team that with a full training camp and summer to plan, the Magic can shore up some of their defensive issues. The team had to learn how to play defense together on the fly and the results were certainly mixed.
Orlando Magic
Even with a modest improvement, if the Magic can maintain that offensive production from the end of last season with that group, the team has a strong unit to get things started.
That means the team is pushing the pace — an 103.8 pace with Nikola Vucevic in the starting lineup — letting Elfrid Payton dominate the ball and create for others and Aaron Gordon is slashing around the rim. There may still be games where the team struggles to create offense because of that lack of shooting — although the Vucevic lineup shot a 53.3 percent effective field goal percentage.
Orlando still has tons of holes to fill, even with that starting lineup. And so nothing is set in stone. Nor should it be. It is mid-July after all.
Simmons turned out to be the Magic’s big free agent signing. And there is already some talk of adding him to the starting lineup. Simmons certainly will push for that playing time and his defense will help, even if it takes away some spacing.
Simmons does not pop off the page statistically. After all, he averaged just 6.2 points per game in 17.8 minutes per game. He shot a 45.6 percent effective field goal percentage. Offensively, Simmons has a lot of holes in his game. The Magic, though, signed him for his defense. He posted 2.1 defensive win shares and a +0.9 defensive box plus-minus.
There is a certain amount of risk in signing Simmons. He is a player still working to prove himself in many ways.
But there were signs last year he could take that step up.
He averaged 10.5 points per game in 20.4 minutes per game in the Playoffs. He shot a 50.4 percent effective field goal percentage. There are signs he could succeed with a larger role. But, then again, those signs existed with Bismack Biyombo.
Fit has as much to do with Simmons’ ultimate success with the Magic as anything. There are no guarantees.
But there is a cold-hard truth and some facts here too. While the Magic certainly should be willing to explore all different kinds of lineups, the numbers suggest the Magic’s starting lineup from last year is something worth exploring. There is enough data and enough success to suggest the Magic should be ready to roll into the season with the same starting lineup.
There is definitely an argument — an argument Vogel made at one point during the season last year when he benched Vucevic and Payton for a time — for some offensive balance between starters and bench.
That may remain the case. The Magic have to make sure there are offensive weapons in that second unit. It seemingly took forever for Vogel to stagger his lineups with a starter in the second unit.
The Magic had something to hold onto in the starting lineup last year. While it certainly felt like Orlando needed to shift the lineup a bit after a 29-win season, there was plenty of evidence to suggest the team would not be terrible keeping the starting lineup together. That slightly positive net rating suggests the group can be at least .500.
Orlando just needed some depth. Perhaps the Magic got that this summer. Perhaps they did not.
Next: Jonathon Simmons completes imperfect Orlando Magic roster
But the Magic seem like they did well to add that depth and give their starting lineup some options. Still, the team seems more than set to roll into next season with the same starting five. And for good reason.