When the Orlando Magic go small…

The Orlando Magic are planning to employ some smaller lineups as they shift their rotation once again. How have they done small so far? It is inconclusive.

Wednesday’s loss to the LA Clippers has clearly proven itself to be something of a turning point for the Orlando Magic.

Losers of six of their past seven games and quickly fading out of the Eastern Conference’s Playoff race, the Magic desperately needed to change something. And since the team was not doing it themselves, the inevitable next option was lineup changes.

Frank Vogel was almost forced to employ some new lineups with Serge Ibaka missing his first game with a sore shoulder. While Serge Ibaka may return in time for Friday’s game against the Portland Trail Blazers, the Magic have promised to make a change.

Vogel told the media in Portland that Nikola Vucevic will start in Friday’s game after starting in Wednesday’s game against the Clippers. It appears that decision was made independent of Ibaka’s injury.

That will be among several changes Vogel said he will try heading into Friday’s game as the season seems at a major tipping point.

In addition to returning Vucevic to the starting lineup — going back to the Magic’s opening day lineup of Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Serge Ibaka and Nikola Vucevic — Vogel said he will use smaller lineups. That means the Magic will play Jeff Green more exclusively at the 4, breaking up the big lineups involving Bismack Biyombo and Nikola Vucevic or Serge Ibaka.

At long last, at least for Magic fans, the team is embracing smaller lineups and trying to change part of its identity. Moving Jeff Green seemingly full-time to power forward, incidentally freeing up time for Mario Hezonja at small forward, is perhaps the last lineup shuffle Vogel can make with his current roster.

Orlando is desperate for a win and some confidence and momentum to get back into the Playoff discussion. This shift in philosophy and experimentation with lineups gives the team a chance to look at something new, albeit at a very high-pressure time.

It is still unclear exactly how these smaller lineups will do. Vogel has shown a preference for using lineups with two traditional bigs, using the Biyombo-Ibaka lineup together. As Zach Lowe of ESPN.com points out, the Magic’s big lineups just have not worked.

Basic lineup data supports this.

Lineups featuring Vucevic and Ibaka post a 101.6 offensive rating and a 103.2 defensive rating for a -1.6 net rating. The Magic are only 1.6 points per 100 possessions worse than opponents when these two are on the floor. Both the offensive and defensive ratings are better than the Magic’s season averages.

The Vucevic/Biyombo pairing has a 96.0/101.8 offensive rating/defensive rating split, for a -5.7 net rating. The defense is killer, but the offense is terrible. And the Ibaka/Biyombo pairing has a 103.4/109.7 ratings split for a -6.3 net rating.

The Magic are a below average team, but the team struggles a lot more with a second big next to Biyombo. And especially when Biyombo is paired with Ibaka, a baffling development that has put a huge wrench in the team’s plans.

According to NBAWowy, the Magic have played 130 minutes with Biyombo and Green on the floor without Vucevic or Ibaka. The team posts 99.6 points per 100 possessions and 112.2 points allowed per 100 possessions. Those splits are not much better.

The results then of going smaller are at best unclear and, at worst, not the right gambit to make. Then again, the sample sizes are very small.

This has clearly not been an arrow Vogel has used much in his quiver. But when he has it is as ineffective and inconsistent as everything else.

The Magic have not played very many small lineups. In groups involving regular rotation players, here are the splits for the Magic’s small lineups (lineups featuring only one of the three Magic bigs), according to NBA.com:

That is a rather long table of every lineup the Magic have played with just one of their big men (leaving out lineups featuring C.J. Wilcox, Stephen Zimmerman and Arinze Onuaku — sorry, guys). And there are a few quick takeaways.

First, these are small sample sizes. So most of the offensive and defensive rating splits are going to be incredibly skewed. It is hard to draw too many conclusions from a group that has played less than a quarter together, much less barely a few minutes.

Second, a lot of these lineups occurred when the Magic were playing Damjan Rudez in the rotation. The team after its first lineup change moving Aaron Gordon to the bench, pairing him with Rudez. The hope was Rudez would space the floor as a stretch-4, allowing Gordon to attack more off the dribble or get more looks inside the arc.

It worked… for a while.

Third, there is a ton of variance. There are no clear conclusions to draw on whether the Magic play better small or not. Clearly, there is not enough data to support whether the Magic can count on success when they go small. Orlando has not tried this kind of lineup very often halfway through the season.

There are also a ton of funky lineups — a lot of these lineups feature two point guards, for instance. Some lineups look better with Jodie Meeks instead of Evan Fournier. The sample sizes are too small to draw any conclusions.

But at the top end of that chart, the Magic do not seem to have much success with these smaller lineups. Only the Rudez lineups seemed to have worked the best in what the Magic have used so far.

The truth is, the Magic have not really used any small lineups in a serious way. There seem to be precious few instances the team embraces a truly small lineup. Most of their most-used lineups will feature either Ibaka-Biyombo, Ibaka-Vucevic or Biyombo-Vucevic. That has gotten the Magic where they are now.

And so Orlando is taking a bit of a roster risk in changing their rotation this way. It makes sense to take this step. But the Magic are trying to get back into the Playoff race with something that has been unproven to this point of the season — the exact midpoint of the season, actually.

There is more potential for Aaron Gordon to play the 4. But in all likelihood, those minutes will remain with Jeff Green as the Magic try to stretch this roster out in a new shape to try to get wins.

Next: Orlando Magic's small lineup gives Mario Hezonja his chance

How the Magic play with this new rotation is a complete mystery. The team simply has not played enough minutes. And so everyone will watch Friday’s first game of this experiment with the same anticipation and curiosity they watched Wednesday’s game when the Magic had to go small out of necessity with Serge Ibaka’s injury.