Orlando Magic’s young core rated in bottom of top 10 by ESPN
ESPN’s numerical projections using WARP have the Orlando Magic’s young core ranked in the top 10. But in the bottom half of that top 10.
The preseason predictions and forecasts have begun now that Summer League is over and there is not much to do before the season begins — minus international competitions and training camp optimism (you know everyone is going to be in the best shape of their lives pretty soon).
ESPN has begun its predictions by trying to calculate who has the best young core based on their projected three-year WARP, or wins above replacement player, for players younger than 26 years old. Bradford Doolittle of ESPN.com did this work by listing the top 10 teams based on this one statisticial category.
The Magic have a lot of those young, but not a lot of wins (an issue Zach Lowe of Grantland gets into specifically regarding Tobias Harris and we will have more on later — or earlier). So their presentation is somewhat skewed.
This is a projection however, so ESPN’s models are trying to capture how much better the Magic’s young players will get in the coming years based on current projections.
Still, when it is all said and done, the Magic come in ninth in the league:
"9. Orlando Magic (70.1)Key young players: Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, Mario Hezonja, Evan FournierOrlando’s talent is well stocked at every position, which gives new coach Scott Skiles a lot of options when it comes to forging his key units going forward. We know he’ll have a defensive group as one of his preferred lineups, and the Magic have the versatility and athleticism to make a major leap on that end this season."
That 70.1 three-year WARP sounds really good. And there is certainly the potential for more. Aaron Gordon had an uneven rookie year — he had a -0.2 victories over replacement value according to Basketball-Reference. And Mario Hezonja does not even have stats to go on quite yet.
Even with projections, this is a bad place to start for a key part of this young core. And so much of the Magic are based on what these players will do.
The top team was the Bucks — who obviously started off with a good base after making the Playoffs last year. The Pelicans — with two All Stars in Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis (that is it for the under-26 players) — came in second with the resurgent Jazz in third.
It is an interesting list and interesting exercise. The Magic have banked on a young core to deliver them to the promised land. They have the horses that should put them on this list.
What is more instructive, perhaps, is the Magic despite all their youth have not had a lot to show for it. They are not high on these lists and are not producing.
Much of this offseason was spent filling in some gaps on the roster. The Magic are relying heavily on internal improvement to get better as a team. That means these guys, these young players have to make that leap for the team to get better.
And, so far, these numerical projections are not painting a very pretty picture.
Luckily, the game is not played on paper or a calculator.