Time for Orlando Magic to roll dice and make own luck
By Zach Palmer
The Orlando Magic will have plenty of options with the fifth overall pick in the NBA Draft. There should be little reason for them to move from their spot.
Back in 2012 when Rob Hennigan was hired, Hennigan sold Orlando’s higher ups on a vision of rebuilding through the draft. The goal? Create a culture conducive to the development of young players and build the team in a way which would create a long-term winner.
While this idea sounds good in theory, there is something you cannot really account for when building through the draft: Luck.
When the Thunder built their current core through the draft they had heaps of luck.
First, the Portland Trail Blazers had to take a chance on Greg Oden. The Thunder ended up with Kevin Durant. Next up, Russell Westbrook. Nobody expected Westbrook to turn out as good as he did. The Thunder did a great job of developing Westbrook and it worked out perfectly. Next up, James Harden. Harden had to slide past the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies for whatever reason took Hasheem Thabeet even with Marc Gasol in the fold and this left the Thunder with James Harden.
So luck matters in building through the Draft. How has luck panned out for the Magic the past two drafts?
In 2013 the Magic finished with the worst record in the NBA giving them the best chances to land the top overall pick in the NBA draft. It turns out the Cleveland Cavaliers ended up with the first pick in the draft after winning the Lottery.
Now this part can be counted as unlucky. However, the Cavaliers ended up taking Anthony Bennett with the first pick. Assuming Bennett was not number one on Orlando’s board, Orlando ended up with the de facto number one pick in a historically weak draft. With that pick the Magic selected Victor Oladipo. His future still seems up in the air.
In 2014 the Magic finished with the third worst record in the NBA at 23-59. The Magic ended up with the fourth overall pick falling one down one spot in the lottery.
Unfortunately for the Magic, they did not land either Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker. The Magic took Aaron Gordon with the fourth pick in the draft.
Orlando followed this up by getting played by Philadelphia 76ers general manager Sam Hinkie. Hinkie saw through Orlando’s plan to draft Elfrid Payton at 12, so Hinkie took Payton and held Orlando hostage. Hinkie ended up swapping firsts with Orlando (Payton for Saric) and acquiring two second round picks in addition to regaining the 76ers first round pick that was surrendered in the Dwight Howard trade.
The 2014 NBA draft epitomized bad luck for the Orlando Magic.
This year, the Magic finished with the fifth worst record in the NBA and were rewarded justly with the fifth pick in the Draft. While the Magic clearly did not get lucky in the sense that they moved up, they may be in a spot that allows them to make a great move, but that requires them to stay still at number five.
There are two prospects who stick out for the Magic at number five. Latvian big man Kristaps Porzingis and Croatian wing Mario Hezonja.
Porzingis measured 7-foot-1 without shoes, with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, is an above average athlete and can shoot from deep.
Henjona on the other hand measures out at 6-foot-8, is an above average athlete, can shoot the lights out and oozes talent and confidence.
What is so special about these prospects that it should force Orlando to pick one of them at five?
Superstar potential.
The Magic have previously drafted players who could not shoot, but were known as gym rats and great defensive players. This strategy relies entirely on Orlando’s developmental system to help these players reach their full potential.
This year when looking at Porzingis and Hezonja you have a pair of players that can score but are not there yet defensively. This is the thing that makes both Hezonja and Porzingis such interesting fits with the Magic. Both prospects have the frame and athleticism to become elite NBA defenders should they put in the work.
Now if that does not get you on board the “Draft a Euro train” here a few comments about these guys from NBA officials:
A former NBA executive of the Year commented to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports:
"“If the draft was one year from now, I think Porzingis goes No. 1. He’s just not fully formed yet and that’s getting in the way of people’s decisions. But one more year, and I think it would be him and then [Karl-Anthony Towns, Russell and Okafor].”"
In regards to Hezonja a scout gushed about him to Chad Ford of ESPN.com:
"“I really love him, I love [Justise] Winslow, too, but I really think if this kid was in college we’d all be going crazy for him. He’s tough, he’s athletic, he shoots the s- – – out of it. And the kid just knows how to play. He’s going to be really, really good in the NBA. He’s the first wing on my board.”"
Also note that at 16 years old that Hezonja was considered the best prospect in the world.
Building through the draft is about luck. The Magic so far have not been all that lucky in their efforts to rebuild through the draft. It is time to roll the dice. Mario Hezonja or Kristaps Porzingis could be a franchise-level talent.
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Are there safer options on the board? Certainly.
Willie Cauley-Stein or Justise Winslow might still be around. They seem to fit Rob Hennigan’s mold a lot better than either Porzingis or Hezonja. They both play defense and have questions about their shot. The thing is, their ceiling does not seem to reach the heights of being a franchise player.
It is time for the Magic to roll the dice.
The Magic need to stay at five and hope that luck is on their side and that their European draftee develops into a superstar just as Russell Westbrook developed for the Thunder.