Who do you pair with Nikola Vucevic?
Nikola Vucevic‘s defense has been a source of concern for the Magic of late. With him tied down long term, the Magic have to ask how you get the most of him.
The Orlando Magic have gotten some stellar play from Nikola Vucevic throughout the season. There is a reason he is in serious consideration for an All Star berth Thursday and got labeled the best player nobody knows about from Grantland’s Zach Lowe.
Orlando rewarded Vucevic for two strong seasons and banked on a third and many more when they gave him a four-year extension reportedly worth up to $52 million which kicks in next season. He has not disappointed, again posting All-Star quality numbers at 19.5 points and 11.2 rebounds per game.
That does not mean Vucevic is not without his weaknesses.
Vucevic’s defense and rim protection leave a lot wanting. The Magic give up a 108.7 offensive rating with Vucevic on the floor compared to 107.0 with him off the floor. As much as Vucevic boosts the offense, his defense certainly hurts. And that could ultimately keep him out of the All-Star Game.
| Team | Opponent | Difference | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split | eFG% | ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | ORtg | eFG% | ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | ORtg | eFG% | ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | ORtg |
| On Court | .500 | 21.2 | 77.3 | 48.6 | 102.9 | .516 | 22.7 | 78.8 | 51.4 | 108.7 | -.016 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -2.7 | -5.8 |
| Off Court | .497 | 19.3 | 74.3 | 46.7 | 99.9 | .503 | 25.7 | 80.7 | 53.3 | 107.0 | -.006 | -6.3 | -6.3 | -6.5 | -7.0 |
| On − Off | +.003 | +1.9 | +3.0 | +1.9 | +3.0 | +.013 | -3.0 | -1.9 | -1.9 | +1.7 | -.010 | +4.8 | +4.8 | +3.8 | +1.2 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/28/2015.
Vucevic, in a Q&A with Zach Lowe of Grantland, admitted defense is where he has to make dramatic improvements. He said he is never going to be a rim protector like Dwight Howard or Andre Drummond but he has to get better moving quickly through the lane and recognizing the play develop so he can at least be a better impediment to scoring.
These are things he can work on and develop, even if slowly.
It brings up the other issue: Who do you pair with Vucevic?
If Vucevic is never going to be a big rim protector and is going to have to constantly improve his defensive positioning and skill, then what kind of player pairs well with him? Can you cover his mistakes with an athletic rim protector next to him?
This is one of the reasons why we floated the idea of the Magic using Tobias Harris to fill that kind of a need in a trade. The Magic have several different types of power forward to put next to Vucevic and it has been a bit of an adjustment for the team to find its footing.
Even Vucevic would admit that, as he did to Lowe:
"They all have their own little ingredients. When we first traded for Tobias, he was playing power forward a lot, and we played pretty well together. I think we were pretty good with me and Kyle. They really all bring something different. I’m comfortable with all of them.Channing spreads the floor a little more than the others. Tobias can create on the dribble. And Kyle is just so unselfish. He’ll always give you an extra effort."
So what works best with Vucevic? Here is a table with a look at all the different power forward paired with Vucevic:
| Mins. | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | Net Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | D.Reb.% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobias Harris | 1023 | 98.4 | 104.6 | -6.2 | 48.9 | 19.9 | 77.0 |
| Channing Frye | 830 | 99.9 | 110.3 | -10.4 | 50.7 | 20.3 | 78.3 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | 220 | 93.9 | 101.3 | -7.4 | 48.9 | 13.3 | 71.8 |
| Aaron Gordon | 114 | 101.3 | 105.5 | -4.2 | 50.5 | 20.8 | 73.7 |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 42 | 92.1 | 87.3 | +4.8 | 43.6 | 38.6 | 85.4 |
| Andrew Nicholson | 42 | 121.5 | 96.7 | +24.8 | 59.0 | 16.1 | 83.8 |
A few things to consider first when taking a look at this table.
You can see there are varying sample sizes. It is hard to draw too many conclusions on some of the lineups that have not been used a lot. Secondly, players like Harris and Gordon might be playing small forward rather than power forward next to Vucevic so there is some overlap. And, finally, there are three other players on the floor and they might have a say on how the team performs too.
But looking at the raw numbers we can draw a few conclusions.
First, that sinking suspicion that the Vucevic and Frye pairing is disastrous for the defense proves to be correct. It is by far the worst defensive pairing of all the Magic’s power forwards. Neither Vucevic nor Frye are any good at rim protection and both struggle with their lateral speed.
The Nicholson pairing is interesting, but 42 minutes is not an extremely large sample size. Nicholson is not a strong defender either and does not have a ton of lateral quickness either. His 3-point shooting is not as proficient as Frye’s either. Neither is his rebounding.
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But, the lineup has worked when Vaughn has gone to it so far this season, it might be something worth exploring.
Second, when you throw in the potential rim protectors and athletes into the lineup, the defense makes a marked improvement. The offense might be a disaster in the limited minutes together, but Dedmon and Vucevic dominate opponents defensively and on the glass when they are out there together.
This is a pairing that can theoretically work because Vucevic can spread the floor some with his jumper. As he joked to Lowe, he has made two of his three 3-point attempts this season.
Defensively having a guy who can block some shots in Gordon or Dedmon or O’Quinn does have an effect and does still work offensively. At least comparatively to the Magic’s season averages in offensive rating.
Since January 12, the offense has obviously improved but the best frontcourt pairing defensively is Vucevic and O’Quinn with a 106.5 defensive rating in six minutes. Not exactly robust. Vucevic and Frye come next at 115.5 in 187 minutes.
Defense is an overall problem with this team that the right power forward combination is not going to solve on its own.
What the full season numbers seem to suggest though is that the more athleticism next to Vucevic, the better the team’s defense can be. Certainly, Orlando has started to collect more athletic players to put at power forward. It is encouraging to see that Gordon and Vucevic play decent defense when together on the floor.
It is all inconclusive though. The Magic’s defense, even in those instances has not been solid all season and has been even worse of late. Orlando will have to find a formula to make things work since Vucevic is part of the team long term.
Next: Would Kenneth Faried answer the question of whom to pair with Vucevic?